Will physical passports still be needed to travel between most countries in 2035?
Basic
2
Ṁ852035
75%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve no if countries no longer exists, or if a Superintelligence kills all physical human beings.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Betting against both the strong (majority of countries by number of countries) and weak (countries making up 51%+ of the world’s population, say) interpretations of “most countries”, though I could see trouble with something like “China and India issue and honor each other’s digital passports”.
Presumably this will be easy to resolve negatively, but I’d be curious about how to evaluate separate digital passport networks / reference countries.
Related questions
Related questions
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
21% chance
Will REAL ID-compliant identification be required for domestic air travel in the US in 2025?
27% chance
Will citizens of the US be able to travel to more than 50% of countries without a physical passport by 2050?
44% chance
Will 50% or more Americans have a passport by EOY 2028?
73% chance
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be unrenewable in 2025?
32% chance
Will TSA airport security checks still require people to take their shoes off in 2030?
39% chance
Will travel increase in 2024?
76% chance
At the beginning of 2032, will people in the United States still be using physical coins or cash on a frequent basis?
71% chance
By 2034, will most Americans leave the house with only their phones (no wallet or keys)?
27% chance
Will I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?
54% chance