Resolves Yes if Manifold updates the logic so that unfilled limit orders no longer contribute to a prediction streak. Alternately, would resolve yes if a change is made that removes that mana from a user's account if they later cancel the limit order and didn't make another valid trade in that same day.
Resolves No if placing a limit order continues to extend prediction streaks into 2024, or if Manifold explicitly says they won't do this.
I find it interesting that placing a limit order extends a prediction streak. In a sense, you are becoming a market maker and this makes the market more robust.
At the same time, a user could easily game the system and just place and cancel limit orders every day for free Mana. {{You could create a bot that does this, run it in multiple accounts, then set up a private market designed to funnel all of the winnings into a single account. I won't do it. But you could.}} <- edit: it looks like this is not the case. API trades are handled differently wrt rewards for prediction streaks.
I will be betting on Yes for this. I have no special access to Manifold, but I may submit a support ticket pointing to this market. Let me know in the comments if you view that as problematic.
🏅 Top traders
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1 | Ṁ36 | |
2 | Ṁ29 | |
3 | Ṁ26 | |
4 | Ṁ14 | |
5 | Ṁ12 |