Resolves Yes if Manifold updates the logic so that unfilled limit orders no longer contribute to a prediction streak. Alternately, would resolve yes if a change is made that removes that mana from a user's account if they later cancel the limit order and didn't make another valid trade in that same day.
Resolves No if placing a limit order continues to extend prediction streaks into 2024, or if Manifold explicitly says they won't do this.
I find it interesting that placing a limit order extends a prediction streak. In a sense, you are becoming a market maker and this makes the market more robust.
At the same time, a user could easily game the system and just place and cancel limit orders every day for free Mana. {{You could create a bot that does this, run it in multiple accounts, then set up a private market designed to funnel all of the winnings into a single account. I won't do it. But you could.}} <- edit: it looks like this is not the case. API trades are handled differently wrt rewards for prediction streaks.
I will be betting on Yes for this. I have no special access to Manifold, but I may submit a support ticket pointing to this market. Let me know in the comments if you view that as problematic.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ36 | |
| 2 | Ṁ29 | |
| 3 | Ṁ26 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ12 |
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Yeah, there's a bunch of risk-free ways to get this if you're so inclined. I view it more as a bonus for coming back to the site each day. They're trying to build habits. The more important thing is making sure you can't automate this. The API doesn't count for this, and I imagine automating this through the website would be against the ToS, if https://manifold.markets/terms didn't give a 404.
There's markets which will explicitly resolve one way, such as https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/what-is-the-mana-interest-rate-this.
There's also markets which were at one time real markets, but are now effectively decided, even if they can't be technically resolved. e.g. https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-there-be-a-ups-workers-strike.
Or you buy and sell M1 of a stable, long-term market on alternate days, such as https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8
Ah, the first part of this is a very good call out! It makes sense to restrict the ability of bots to gather rewards.
I suppose this nixes my main concern with the way things are set up, but it doesn’t negate the fundamental question of the market, so I’ll leave it be and watch my initial bet likely dwindle as a result of my lack of knowledge of the API guidelines! :)
@A I understand the spirit of it. My concern mostly had to do with creating easy ways to game the reward system, which was evidently a fundamentally misplaced concern because bets placed using the API are treated differently.