Wouldn't put any mana on this - Corn (the market's creator) has traded multiple times, which is egregious insider trading; thus, it's likely that all positions with positive expected value have been efficiently priced-in. In addition, this puts us market participants at huge risk of unforeseeable losses due to market manipulation considering his outsized influence on the outcome.

@JonahCapturesInefficienci Would selling all my shares fix this?

@CornCasting The price manipulation has already occurred and influenced others' trades; your best bet to avoid an antitrust case would be to immediately close the market and refund all market participants any funds they have bet up until this point in full. This can be done via sending real currency outside of manifold since you can't transfer funds here.

Am in "seeing someone with mutually declared serious intent" territory. But alas, we have not gotten to official BF-GF territory before winter ended

@CornCasting is it the same one you've mentioned previously in the comments?

@TheAllMemeingEye Yes, very much the very same

Friend asked if I am using Astronomical or Meteorological seasons lol. I'm using astronomical seasons (i.e. based on sun's position) so Spring starts March 20.

Had a lovely Valentine's date 😊

Are the options mutually exclusive, thus should add up to 100%?

@TheAllMemeingEye Yea this was a mistake when I made the market and cant find a way to fix it after the fact.

But, if you think about it, technically it is possible for me to get a girlfriend, break up, and then in the same year - during another season - get another girlfriend - which... does mean they aren't technically mutually exclusive.

Though if there was a way for me to fix it and make the options mutually exclusive that would be more in keeping with the spirit of the market. But feels like too late for that now so just keeping this as is

Weirdly, considering I have a romantic disposition I think is rather polarizing (it takes a special kind of person to tolerate or embrace my quirkiness and absent-mindedness) I have never gone over a year without finding a new partner

• Me having a model of the person as "EA-adjacent" and/or "Rationality-adjacent" I have learnt is a requirement for me to fall in love with someone - I don't care how hot she is. If I do not see this in her I wont be able to fall in love.

  • Given the Great EA-Rat Girl Famine all EA-Rat men are suffering through this might make things harder for me :(

Did this strict requirement form before or after the several year frequent relationship streak?

@TheAllMemeingEye After.

I have become vastly more discerning and picky when it comes to serious long-term relationships.

Case in point I had a first date last week and had to turn down further dating since she was looking for something more exclusive and serious I could not offer. Incredibly charming, playful and lovely girly - we talked for hours on end and even danced under the stars. Had I met her years ago I would have sincerely wanted to date her exclusively and seriously right off the bat... but older jaded me just has particular hard requirements I cannot compromise on - and I will gladly communicate this on a first date if need be.

@CornCasting cool, thanks for clarifying 👍

If you don't mind sharing, what were the requirements she didn't meet? Was it just her not being EA/Rat?

Btw are you intending to go to any of the following this year?

• Effective Altruism Global

• LessOnline

• Manifest

These may be particularly good opportunities to meet EA/Rat women, though that may be partly cancelled out by there being a lot of competition from other EA/Rat guys, and most of the attendees being from other parts of the world (I'm not sure whether you're ok with long distance relationships)

@TheAllMemeingEye It wasn't that she wasn't EA/Rat. It was that I modelled her as someone that could never be EA/Rat and therefore wouldn't be able to understand my soul - if I can put it so poetically. i.e. if I meet someone that has never heard of EA or ACX but they "click" onto it fast and "get it" enough to talk to me about it for hours I will model them as someone I can fall in love with.

In fact, I recently met someone who explained LessWrong concepts back to me after I started explaining some of it and then confused myself. Like Good Lawd did it excite me meeting someone whose brain seemed not to know the stuff, pick it up fast from me, and then run circles around my brain explaining the concept back to me after I had confused myself - and successfully got me very quickly to not be confused anymore! I get googly legs just thinking about her! Like her mind is some hyper-dimensional rubix-cube with beautiful fractal patterns and I want to explore all of her. She is nominally not Rat/EA but I still model her very firmly as "can fall in love with."

Unsure about EAG, LessOnline, Manifest. I'll very likely be at the aiforanimals conference. I am pretty career focused this year so not doing much travelling. I'm mostly just focused on Vancouver's dating scene and online.

I don't have an issue with long distance. If anything, I seem to do better if it starts long-distance as this acts as a dampening function to reduce how ridiculously enthusiastic I tend to become over someone I like. My previous 2 relationships both started long-distance. I have started to introspect and wonder if they would never have flourished if they were 100% in-person because I would have been way too puppy-dog enthusiastic way too fast.

Make of that what you will.

@CornCasting cool, thanks for clarifying 👍

Oh boy do I have big 'ol crush starting this week. Like holy petunia batman damn. Tie me up, stick a USB flash drive to my brain and upload the sudo-access override mind virus that is her straight into that neocortex of mine.

Make of that what you will.

"I guess technically an attractive and savvy forecaster on this platform could find me and seduce me and do all sorts of domineering malicious things to me that only superforcaster women with lots of mana could do to a Gold rank pleb like me to force me to agree to be her boyfriend, only to leave me right after this market resolves and take all my mana with her."

Seems like the plot of a short story you should write.

Claude

@CornCasting If you get your AI to do your writing for you, you did not by any stretch of the imagination "beat the game"

@asmith very much depends on the game you are playing - also updated the description given I am actually interested in what good forecasters would predict