How did Charlotte the stingray conceive her pups?
Jul 1
Parthenogenesis (Immaculate Conception)
Male stingray (either by contaminated water or co-mingling)
She was never pregnant in the first place (mistaken diagnosis)
She was pregnant, but failed to carry to term

Look up Charlotte the stingray or click this link: (

Market extended to the 30th of June in the case that we do not see a birth by then, on the theory that the proof is in the pups.

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sold Ṁ36 She was pregnant, bu... YES

I am absolutely living for the fact that thanks to this market I am super invested in this story.

bought Ṁ20 She was pregnant, bu... YES

Charlotte has a disease. Although the article leaves question open of whether she was pregnant at an earlier point.

Market extended to 30th of June

bought Ṁ50 She was pregnant, bu... YES

@ConnorTabarrok and I can see this is going to be hard for you to judge since we are unlikely to learn much more from this point. I still think she was not ever pregnant, but bought some "pregnant but didn't carry to term" to hedge against a decision that took the untrustworthy aquarium owner's word at face value.

bought Ṁ10 Hoax YES

This story is going to blow wide open some time this year. I mean, look at this sus behavior:

I wasn’t allowed to conduct any interviews in the aquarium, and I’d seen all there was to see, so I decided to leave and come back at 3:15 for the ray feeding, hoping to learn more official information about Charlotte. I did a person-on-the-street interview outside on the sidewalk with visitors who’d come to pay homage to Charlotte, then settled down on a public bench to wait. 

That’s when I was approached by a member of the Hendersonville police. Officer Marianna Tinoco asked if I was a news reporter, then explained that they’d received a call that I was harassing people. I told her I’d only interviewed one couple who’d been eager to talk. Tinoco said I could carry on with my work, as long as I wasn’t harassing anyone, then she and a second officer walked into the aquarium.

When they came back out, they told me that Ramer wanted them to book me for “trespassing.” They weren’t going to charge me with anything, they said—I looked “sweet.” But if I went back into the aquarium, they would have no choice but to arrest me.

This was my second dust-up with police in 15 years of journalism. The last one was reporting on neo-Nazis in Germany. This one was about a stingray. 

I requested the recording and report from the 911 call a few days later. In it, an unnamed female caller claimed a reporter was outside “harassing” guests and an officer was needed to “make sure everybody’s safe out there.” They had young volunteers, the caller said, who “didn’t need to see this.” 

bought Ṁ50 She was never pregna... YES

@AlQuinn so this is what I think:

1) Charlotte developed cysts or a tumor

2) this was mistaken for being a pregnancy

3) the story went viral and raised the prospects of this aquarium

4) the expected due date passed, and the prevarication started (maybe innocently at first due to confirmation bias and wanting badly for this to be true)

5) at some point, the aquarium owners started to doubt themselves, which caused them to increasingly act in a dishonest manner

6) they are now stuck in their narrative with no game plan

Regarding #6, it's clear these people are not too bright given the 911 call over a petite female redhead reporter doing reporter things near their place of business. I'm guessing they will milk this and then basically do a ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ down the road.

bought Ṁ10 Parthenogenesis (Imm... NO

@AlQuinn it's so frustrating... I think I might close the market and return everyones bets if there is no answer by end of May

@ConnorTabarrok the truth will come out eventually. Unlike Boeing, I don't think the aquarium is going to start assassinating whistle-blowers that will prove me right

@ConnorTabarrok noooo keep it up at least until the end of the year!

Personally my theory a month ago was the pregnancy timing is hard to predict and the pups are coming

Extended again as we have not seen any stingray pups yet

@ConnorTabarrok still no birth yet, will check back in a week I guess

bought Ṁ20 Parthenogenesis (Imm... NO

@ConnorTabarrok still nothing. And I'm still of the opinion she may not be pregnant, but I don't think "hoax" captures that scenario.

@AlQuinn I agree. I've added a few other options

bought Ṁ50 She was pregnant, bu... YES

@AlQuinn if she was never pregnant ant the aquarium knew that and kept advertising about it, I would resolve to hoax. If she was never pregnant but the aquarium wasn't scamming, I'll probably go to N/A.

@Mad I can resolve to multiple right? I think theres a good chance it was parthenogenesis and that the pups failed to fully develop as a result.

@ConnorTabarrok I don't know anything about manifold 😂

Market extended to the 8th of March. Will not resolve until we see the pups and know if they are charlotte "clones" (from parthenogenesis) or if a male ray somehow mated with charlotte (maybe by storing sperm for 8 years or otherwise)

Considering we've seen (other types of) stingrays go through parthenogenesis before, seems like a better bet than sudden cross-clade interbreeding.

I think there's another (unlikely) possibility that Charlotte is a hermaphrodite and hasn't been identified as such. Hermaphroditism has been seen in stringrays and self-fertilization is not unheard of.

FYI: The Immaculate Conception is not the same as the Virgin Birth. The doctrine of the Immaculate Conception states that Mary the mother of Jesus was conceived without the taint of original sin.

@StephenClark for the purposes of this market, no stingray cum = immaculate

@StephenClark It's fallen into colloquial usage. Yes, the immaculate conception was the conception of Mary, not Jesus, but that's not what most people think of.

@ConnorTabarrok best no-context Manifold comment

@StephenClark I wonder why Christians decided to retcon the immaculate conception of Mary but stopped there. Like, if it would be bad for the mother of Jesus to be conceived in sin, why is it okay if her own mother Anne was conceived in sin? Her grandma, and so on and so forth all the way until Eve? I mean, it's not like induction was unheard of in the 19th century when the retconning was made official.