Whether authored by me or someone else, whether branded that way or a different way. As long as it's an official Manifold newsletter and covers politics, it counts.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
1,000
3.00Sorry…
I did have an almost-draft a week ago, but I’ve been busy and haven’t really looked at it in the last week. Also, it was sort of about how Trump was leading in the polls, which isn’t super true right now, so I have to reframe the post a bit, which I’ve been putting off… it’s also not a super time-sensitive post in general so I’m okay with this. Very sorry to bettors here though!
@shankypanky @chrisjbillington I'll do my best but you guys overestimate the correlation between me working on writing a thing and it being ready within a week lol
@shankypanky I bet markets to probabilities :)
but it's entirely possible that non-me people can forecast my productivity better than me
@Conflux Was more going for the correlation between you betting on the thing and it happening, rather than merely working on it! But perhaps you are well-calibrated about it and there was no point betting higher than you had already bet it.