Manifold newsletters have an impressively consistent email open rate: they're always 20-30%, going back to at least the last 20 newsletters.

I took an unrighteous glance at the stats for my latest newsletter, which I posted three hours ago. It's only 11%. That was when I realized the title ("Jimmy Carter's 100th Birthday!") was arguably bad and sells the newsletter short?

But I'm not sure; maybe there are reasons why this number will be artificially depressed in the first few hours (people who checked their email but didn't click, and will read later? people who marked it as unread or filed it away to read later? I have no idea how this is calculated. it has always seemed high, given that manifold will spam anyone who gives them their email for any reason)

Anyway, I'll check the rate at market close and resolve YES if it is at least 20%. Resolves NO if it is 19% or less. As displayed by Substack, in the analytics page below:

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.