Proof is super careful/conservative about covid, but was held in person for almost all of the 2021-22 school year, including basically the entire second half. Wildfire smoke would be another plausible reason for going digital.
This market resolves YES if Proof School is held in person, possibly with a small number of infected/exposed people joining online, every planned school day of the coming 2022-23 school year. It resolves NO otherwise.
Sep 18, 4:53pm: The school has announced a move from masks-required to the following policy: "During any given school week Proof School will either require mask usage or observe a mask-optional policy. Each Sunday afternoon Proof School will determine the mask status for the next week, based on whether the most recent seven-day rolling average case rates in San Francisco have been steadily above or below 10.0 people per 100,000. The school will alert families only when the mask status changes, and let students know on the corresponding Monday mornings."
Jan 27, 6:32pm: They've now said that they're planning to stay mask-optional for the rest of the year.
Apr 21, 6:07pm: Will Proof School be in person for every day of the 2022-23 school year? → Will Proof School be in person for every day of the 2022-23 school year? [AP calc day counts as N/A]
1,000
3.00My final verdict: if the AP calc day (May 8) happens as planned, and it's the most extreme example of school not being in person, the market will resolve N/A. I know: it's anticlimactic. We'll have to figure out what to do in the yearbook. The market that I've held up as an example of Manifold Markets actually helping people forecast things had inadequate resolution criteria. I'm embarrassed.
I actually came very close to resolving this NO; it's true that May 8 was a planned school day at the beginning of the year, and now most students won't come to the building on that day. However, that just isn't what people were using this market to forecast. (It was a market about covid, and then a market about flooding, and now...) Ultimately, it's a letter of the market vs spirit of the market kinda thing, and that's kinda what N/A is for. It also received a majority (2-4-9) in the poll on the Proof Manifold groupchat.
I plan to pay @JoshuaB a bounty of M$1000 for finding the flaw in this market and to compensate for his missed gains. If anyone else feels they deserve to have profited, I may pay you a bounty as well! I'll try to be generous.
I made a new market for the spirit of this one:
@JoshuaB I’m not gonna pretend like this is obviously a NO resolution.
The strongest argument (or perhaps the best straw man :-P) I see against this counting is that school being canceled by APs is clearly in a different class than cancellation due to fire or COVID.
Though on the other hand, the similarity between an AP test and something like a fire is that they’re both external forces outside of Proof’s control that force them to cancel school.
@JoshuaB what makes you say that this was a planned school day? I knew we'd have off for months before the email cause it was on the calendar. So then why should this count towards a no resolution but SAT day shouldn't (with a similar prop of students taking the exams).
@Yoav We're pretty small, and I feel it's quite unlikely that would do it for fake internet points. But it would be really bad if someone did that, especially for the future of Proof prediction markets, so I do worry about this sort of thing.
@NicoAlberti for context, students did not go outside for lunch today and are instead starving or doordashing food
@JoshuaB If it would be better described as "hybrid" than "in-person", I will resolve NO. I'm not sure exactly the percentage of students attending remotely that would cause this, but somewhere around 25% I think.
@Conflux And one for the week: https://manifold.markets/JoshuaB/will-proof-school-be-in-person-for-28b445a08c76