I’ve been active on Manifold for about eight months now, yet my highest-volume market, with M$8443 bet, was still my first. To be fair, it was a meta market on whether it would get at least ten traders (https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-at-least-ten-users-trade-on-th). My second-place market (https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-shinzo-abe-die-within-the-next) got a comparatively paltry M$2784. This is out of 25 markets.
Anyway, it’s been awhile, and I’ve gotten more mana and more followers. Will any of my markets crack M$8443 bet by June 2023? Markets I’ve already made would count, though I’m excluding this one.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ5,990 | |
| 2 | Ṁ45 | |
| 3 | Ṁ22 | |
| 4 | Ṁ18 | |
| 5 | Ṁ15 |
@JoshuaB Yeah!
A few of my others seem to have crossed the threshold or been close - this Proof in Person one by just like M$10. You still can’t sort by volume though, so I didn’t go through all my markets with many traders
@Duncan Adding a third $100 YES bet to this market changed my daily profit to M$-1,531. Time lag? Running one bet behind? It should still be much deeper in the negatives.
@Duncan That profit thing is weird, according to your portfolio you did lose 6013 on this market but your net loss is only about 1543. I don’t have any insight here.
I appreciate your…investment, but fyi I did write in the description that this market itself doesn’t count.
(Also, I guess this market is an obvious target for manipulation, but I think it’d be cool if that didn’t happen. I won’t stop anyone.)
@Conflux If I did the math right, it's possible to make a profit on this market by manipulating it and one other of your markets, but I'm not planning on doing it myself. FWIW, I think this market will resolve YES (even without manipulation), but I'm not going to change my investments to make it happen. However, I might continue to run experiments on this market, if I think of others to run. At this point I don't even understand enough to make a bug report... or if a bug report is appropriate.