Will Maniswipe be the default on mobile on Saturday at noon PST?
39
128
αΉ€1.1K
resolved Feb 4
Resolved
YES

Most people on the Discord seem to hate it, and Manifold is fairly responsive - they just readded the old home under "Dashboard".

I plan to open the Manifold app on Saturday, February 4 at exactly noon PST to check. If I forget or am slightly late, I'll resolve based on my best guess on what would have happened at noon, based on reports from others.

See previously:

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get αΉ€200 play money

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predicted NO
bought αΉ€30 of NO

@SG What data does Manifold want at this point to be convinced to remove Maniswipe from the default?

bought αΉ€1,000 of YES

@Conflux Low usage numbers, esp low usage from new/casual users.

predicted YES

@Conflux Usage is still increasing for now.

bought αΉ€287 of YES

@SG I think idea around it is really good, but I still feel like it's a little janky to use. It's definitely gotten better recently tho. Maybe I just like browsing around more because I'm usually on computer, but idk.

predicted YES

@Conflux Also, the goal of Maniswipe is to expand our audience. The fact that math magnet school attendees and MIT PhDs don't like this interface as much is not really the evidence I care about. (Although I do care very much that the other interfaces on our platform serve your needs!)

predicted NO

@SG Thanks for the answer! I feel like if it was actually the case that whatever other demographics you want liked Maniswipe, I probably would've seen someone somewhere who actually claimed to like this interface though.

predicted NO

Surprised that you're saying Manifold isn't bleeding mobile users yet from this. Did the rate of user increase at least decrease?

predicted NO

I also think that, for a new user, it makes more sense to show them multiple markets at first instead of trying to make them randomly bet on some market where they might have no opinion. I don't bet on a majority of markets I come across and I'm more confident in my trading ability now than most new users I've talked to, a lot of people are like "why would I bet on a market if I don't think I'm smarter than the market?"

predicted YES

@Conflux Nope!

bought αΉ€50 of NO

@SG How about retention rates?

predicted YES

@Conflux Unchanged.

predicted YES

@SG what about ࢞ rates?

predicted YES
predicted YES

@SG agreed

predicted NO

@SG Good to know if true! Updates me in favor of Maniswipe maybe having some supporters somewhere

bought αΉ€200 of YES

@SG what about retention rate for specifically mobile users?

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Retention is slightly higher for mobile users!

predicted YES

@SG oh, wow! Unexpected but nice to hear

By default you mean what it shows when you initially open the app right?

predicted NO

@DesTiny Correct