Planning to make official projections on Twitter at a 98% confidence level. I will be in charge, but other Manifold traders such as @Gabrielle have been invited to help! (You can too - @ me when you think a call is in order!) We will be using the following proxies:

• manifold and/or polymarket at 98% or higher and it’s not a fluke

• major network calls it

• Dave Wasserman has seen enough

• strong sentiment from a group of people on election twitter (Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, etc)

• strong belief from the decision desk team for other reasons

The current plan is to do all the states for president, all the Senate races, and the overall presidency/Senate/House.

The goal is to be faster than major news networks without getting projections wrong. But if one of them was wrong, that would be okay.

Note: If we are initially 98% confident in a race, then our confidence drops below ~90%, we will retract the projection. If we retract the projection and then re-project it for the same candidate, that would not cause a YES resolution to this market. The projection must be actively wrong.

[Note: A prior version of this market will likely resolve yes due to a typo that caused us to project ME-2 instead of ME-1. For this market, a "typo" projection doesn't count. I must have intended to project that race.]

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.