Resolves YES if, on July 1, I trust the Manifold profit and portfolio numbers in all contexts to be generally accurate, non-bugged, and consistent with manual calculations. Resolves NO if, like now, I just assume they're probably wrong in some way whenever they say something that I can't easily explain. I'll use judgement.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ159 | |
| 2 | Ṁ45 | |
| 3 | Ṁ20 | |
| 4 | Ṁ16 | |
| 5 | Ṁ16 |
Prift related bugs posted in discord, in the last 7 days:
Within same page bugged profit count: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1116734376512847933
Between market and league bugged profit: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1116821057156960338
Wildly out of whack (36x) profit between leagues market, portfolio: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1118462946851426355
Bugged profit in multiple choice market:
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1118550673710121123
Bugged profit in untouched market
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1118562143210577980
Bugged profit in leagues: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1118579200367018104
Bugged profit in profile: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1118640633247182949
@Conflux how long does it take of profit/portfolio figures working for you to trust them? Do you need to see a bug on July 1st, or just know that there probably is a bug somewhere on the site?
@RobertCousineau I don't need to actually see a bug on July 1st. This level of bugs is sufficient to resolve NO.
If you want to see a recent error, look at the spike in my profit/portfolio yesterday. This happened because a transaction didn’t register on the cash balance.
@Conflux I trust the profit numbers but distrust the portfolio counts. If you didn't trust them a month ago, nothing has changed that makes me more confident in the portfolio numbers.
A Manifold Markets developer stated 4 days ago looking at my profile that it "appears to have a bug": Will @galen lose more on the average percentage market than @Mira lost on the 69% market? | Manifold Markets
While it may simply be confusion given the market, it is evidence they distrust the portfolio graph more than Isaac's memory. I also see people in the Discord server questioning the numbers constantly, often due to caching inconsistencies, but sometimes other issues.
They are generally a good indicator but not "trustworthy".