Will I trust Manifold profit/portfolio figures on July 1?
21
174
370
resolved Jul 2
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if, on July 1, I trust the Manifold profit and portfolio numbers in all contexts to be generally accurate, non-bugged, and consistent with manual calculations. Resolves NO if, like now, I just assume they're probably wrong in some way whenever they say something that I can't easily explain. I'll use judgement.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Conflux how long does it take of profit/portfolio figures working for you to trust them? Do you need to see a bug on July 1st, or just know that there probably is a bug somewhere on the site?

@RobertCousineau I don't need to actually see a bug on July 1st. This level of bugs is sufficient to resolve NO.

If you want to see a recent error, look at the spike in my profit/portfolio yesterday. This happened because a transaction didn’t register on the cash balance.

And the spikes up and down last night. I’m less confident these are error cuz I wasn’t paying attention to it then, but I still lack faith in this system.

predicted NO

And I have an even bigger spike. I presume this will just keep happening so if you even need evidence that manifold profits and portfolios are messed up, just take a look at my account 👍.

sold Ṁ26 of NO

Have there been any clear errors lately?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Conflux I trust the profit numbers but distrust the portfolio counts. If you didn't trust them a month ago, nothing has changed that makes me more confident in the portfolio numbers.

A Manifold Markets developer stated 4 days ago looking at my profile that it "appears to have a bug": Will @galen lose more on the average percentage market than @Mira lost on the 69% market? | Manifold Markets

While it may simply be confusion given the market, it is evidence they distrust the portfolio graph more than Isaac's memory. I also see people in the Discord server questioning the numbers constantly, often due to caching inconsistencies, but sometimes other issues.

They are generally a good indicator but not "trustworthy".

predicted YES

@Mira Ok, fair. Good to know