I've always woken up and gone to bed relatively early compared to other people, and even when I have nothing in the morning I've pretty successfully avoided staying up significantly past midnight! My sleep times have been trending later, though, and it isn't ridiculous to think that I might pull an all-nighter at some point. So this market will resolve YES if I stay up past 4am sometime during 2023, and NO otherwise.
If I travel between time zones over the course of the day, it must be past 4am in all time zones I've been in that day for it to resolve this market YES. For example, if I wake up in California, fly to New York, and go to bed at 5am, it's still 2am in California, so that wouldn't count for the market.
If I go to bed earlier than 4am but am unable to fall asleep, or successfully fall asleep earlier but wake up such that I am awake at 4am, that also wouldn't count for this market. I must be intentionally staying up past 4.
Markets for 2am and 3am:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ848 | |
| 2 | Ṁ262 | |
| 3 | Ṁ104 | |
| 4 | Ṁ54 | |
| 5 | Ṁ48 |
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"I must be intentionally staying up past 4" so if you are just working on a puzzle and lose track of time and "accidentally" stay up past 4 this would not resolve YES?
OR
Do you mean that you must not have actively tried to go to sleep before 4 (local time of the time zone in which you first awoke since you last laid down for a full rest) for this to resolve YES?
@ShitakiIntaki Ah, sorry for the confusing wording. I did mean the latter. It can count if I lose track of time, what doesn’t count is if I’m having trouble falling asleep.
@ShitakiIntaki During the school year I wake up at 6:45 from an alarm. (I could technically wake up a bit later and still make my train, but I like having time in the morning.) On weekends/breaks I usually wake up between like 7:30 and 10:30.
If you wanna see some bedtime data, here’s a spreadsheet I made for an earlier manifold market:
So like, clearly 4am is not happening on a typical day. But this market is about whether a sufficiently atypical day occurs, or whether my sleep schedule “evolves” enough.
I feel like my sleep markets randomly got a lot of traders recently, perhaps I should rewrite the description to give a fuller picture of my “sleep profile”?
@Conflux Anything new anticipated this year? Moving from secondary school to college? From undergrad to graduate? Graduate to Postgrad? Foreseeable paradigm shifts?
@ShitakiIntaki type of guy who becomes friends with @Conflux just to fuck up his sleeping schedule in order to win this market
@ShitakiIntaki Hmm, not really. I’m probably doing a summer program in UK ( /Conflux/will-i-get-accepted-to-pair), so maybe I’ll be jetlagged. Or party all night.
These days, almost all of my bedtime inflation has been a result of talking to friends with later sleep schedules online. An increase in this basically moved my average weeknight bedtime from 10ish to 10:30ish, and my (recent-memory, ignoring travel) record from 12ish to 1ish. I think if you wanna manipulate markets this way, though, you’re better off aiming for 2am than 4am. That’s a lot of hours. Especially now that I’m holding NO shares (although I’ll try not to let that influence me too much).
Or, like, I hear that most people have done an all-nighter. Maybe one of those will befall me…
@Conflux I agree, there is a world of difference between 2 and 4. At 4 I start to seriously consider if I should just give up on that cycle of sleep.
Do you drink caffeine? Based upon your other patterns you don't strike me as the demographic that drinks energy drinks, but maybe tea or coffee but you might be drinking decaf.