Will I get accepted to PAIR?
Basic
17
Ṁ2155
resolved Jun 17
Resolved
NO

Resolves N/A if I don't apply, but I probably will. (See /astyerche/will-conflux-apply-to-esprpair-with) It's pair.camp.

they can't reject me if i mention my manifold clout right

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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predicted NO

“We would like to share that you were among the top applicants we interviewed. However, the competition was extraordinarily strong this year, and we had fewer spots to offer than the number of remarkable applicants we encountered.”

predicted YES

@Conflux they yield protected :(

I think my interview went well!

predicted YES

mention your manifold clout, it will most likely help

predicted NO

I reached the interview! ~100-200 people down to ~30-40 for PAIR and ~30-40 for ESPR, but I’m only applying for PAIR myself.

predicted YES

@Conflux LETS GO 🥳 we can make it if we try

predicted YES

@Conflux thank you for making it cheaper while i was buying yes btw

predicted NO

@astyerche (To explain for other bettors - power creep received an email saying they got an interview a few days ago, while I had received no such email, which I found worrying. However, I think it’s just because I submitted the tasks later that my email was also later?)

Have you applied?

predicted NO

@RobertCousineau Yes, sorry for not updating the market! I reached Stage 2, which was Tasks, and I think I did pretty well.

But apparently there are ~400 applicants in Stage 2 (down from 1200 total), of which they’ll only accept like 40 or something? So the base rates are not good

predicted NO

But I’ve done things with low base rates before, and I feel like I vibe with PAIR

@Conflux I wish you luck! You totally should mention your Manifold clout - you made my time here more fun, and made the site a better place.

predicted NO

@RobertCousineau That’s so nice of you to say! Anything in particular?

predicted NO

@Conflux you make generally high quality markets and comments. Your world prediction market ones have clear criteria and you are responsive, your self resolving are atleast interesting (The Market was fun to watch!), and Nice Numbers was a good find/shoutout!

predicted NO

@RobertCousineau Thank you, those are definitely goals of mine!

did you already apply :o

@astyerche no but I filled out some of the questions

@Conflux what do you think is the best question to get to know you? asking for a friend

this is jokes, i already have one

@astyerche lmao 😂