Will I lose at least M$50 from a stupid misclick/error in 2023?
41
770แน€5121
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

To count for this market, it must specifically be a trade I didn't mean to make - not the absence of a trade, or a trade that I wouldn't have made if I'd read the description more closely. I don't make very many such misclicks/errors. I must lose all M$50 on the same market.

But... I just attempted to make a M$25 limit order at 75% on this market but accidentally placed a M$75 limit order at 25%, which filled, sold most of the shares, then accidentally placed another M$75 limit order at 25%, same deal, and only then placed the correct limit order. If there had been any large trades in between, I could certainly have lost a real amount of mana on this. Though if the market ended up resolving NO, it wouldn't have counted - once any market in which I make a misclick resolves, I'll do the counterfactual calculation and try to figure it out. It's not about expected value.

Hopefully that's clear enough?

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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predictedNO

hasnโ€™t happened yet!

Hmm, I guess this should be a little higher because I might accidentally make a bet on @Botflux?

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