I tend to dislike movies and avoid watching them, so it mostly only happens when family or friends pressure me. I believe the only movie I've watched which has won an Academy Award for Best Picture is The Sound of Music (1965), which I actually didn't hate. This market resolves YES if, by the time the 2023 Best Picture is selected, I have watched another (possibly the 2022 or 2023 Best Picture); NO otherwise. I must watch at least 50% of a movie for it to count.

I won't bet on this market.

Among the 2022 nominees, I've only watched Top Gun: Maverick so far (which I found boring). I've heard good things about Everything Everywhere All At Once and could imagine watching it. I am unlikely to watch Avatar: The Way of Water, and know almost nothing about the rest of the nominees. I've also watched non-nominee Glass Onion and loved it, I think it was snubbed.

Wikipedia has a list of the options from history: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academy_Award_for_Best_Picture. A Beautiful Mind (2001) and Schindler's List (1993) seem plausible, but their probability isn't really that much higher than the others.

Related:

Other past Best Picture nominees I've watched (exhaustive list?)

• Hidden Figures (2016, good movie)

• The Martian (2015, enjoyed, having read the book)

• Moneyball (2011, good concept but there are so many unnecessary pauses)

• The Social Network (2010, somewhat captivating actually)

• [Avatar (2009, was unable to finish due to boredom)]

• Life is Beautiful (1998, watched for literature class, bad but interesting to analyze)

• Good Will Hunting (1997, it was okay)

• [E.T. the Extra Terrestrial (1982, might have started but def didn't finish)]

• Mary Poppins (1964, fine)

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.