I believe the only primary forecast so far they've published was for the 2020 Democratic primaries.
This market resolves YES if FiveThirtyEight publishes a forecast before the first caucus or primary that lists probabilities for Republican presidential candidates to win the 2024 nomination. It resolves NO otherwise.
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This doesn't meet the criteria, but again shows that 538 have models built for the GOP nomination contest:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-republican-delegate-benchmarks/
Now that we are only two weeks out, our models are even more confident of a Trump win in Iowa, which we focus on because it historically has been a catalyst for movement in the national polls.
https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/iowans-vote-in-two-weeks-will-the
Doesn't mean that the question criteria will met, just that they do have models.
@ScottSupak you are correct. I just see this as a sign that work is being done on something.
@MickBransfield Eh, I sincerely doubt it; path dependence makes the forecast unreliable.
@MickBransfield I'm not interested in dimestore psychology. Morris is working with fewer resources and knows that primary models would be a waste of the resources he has left.
@ScottSupak It doesn't matter how smart he is, or how irrational the decision, if Morris is driven by a need for attention and his fixation on Silver. He is a DC person and this goes with all of my own experiences of dealing with people inside the Beltway.
@MickBransfield You have assumed how much Morris can do at 538 with a leaner staff based on your dimestore psychoanalytical diagnosis of a fixation with Sliver that you posit based on an appeal to your authority.
Cool.
Looking at 538 makes me so depressed nowadays. They haven't even put out a decent enough prediction for any of tomorrow's elections, I doubt they'll be able to manage :(
@drevv Those are good points. But once you’ve made one primary model before, most of your hard work is done, right? And it’s a popular feature that drives engagement
@Conflux https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168?t=Y3IqNJjGbBashJdHsGKHkQ&s=19 I find it hard to believe 538 is stable enough to be putting out any large projects soon. I think a lot hinges on when Silver's contract is up (perhaps June? https://twitter.com/ClareMalone/status/1650907956936949766?t=QYseZVXWOMmi8Ow9lmVSnw&s=19)
@drevv Oh no, I didn't realize it was this bad. If they lose Nate, they might not be able to make the tweaks necessary to publish the model in 2024.
@drevv idk, unless they had some old articles in the hopper, I'm still seeing woke takes coming out every week from them. Looks like they still have the donkeypower to do this.
@Conflux Nate Silver has said that he's taking his model with him, so if 538 puts out a 2024 model it'll presumably need to be an entirely new one. They should have the expertise to do that though, since (I assume!) other people on the team have been developing the model along with him, and they have familiarity with how his model works.