Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14)
64%
chance

Some of Joe Biden's lawyers discovered in his Delaware home some classified documents he kept from Obama's presidency. Biden's team returned the documents and claims it was an accident. However, Kevin McCarthy called for the launch of an investigation. Here's the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_classified_documents_incident

Resolves YES if this whole situation is largely forgotten by the media and the popular zeitgeist 3 months from today (on April 14th) and NO otherwise. N/A if it's especially ambiguous. This is a subjective market, but I'll do my best to resolve fairly.

Conservative media outlets will be weighted modestly: if liberal/mainstream media stops covering it but it's a very frequent talking point on Fox News, for example, this will probably resolve NO, but YES if it's only an occasional Fox talking point. Other factors I may consider include: level of awareness among people I know (including those who don't follow politics), level of conversation on Twitter, and number of Manifold markets made on the subject.

I will not bet on this market unless I feel it is very mispriced.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Feb 3, 7:00am: Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? → Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14)

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MatthewRitter avatar
Matthew Ritterbought Ṁ50 of NO

While I admit I haven’t done the complete base rate calculation, it seems like there is both incentive and stated goals for McCarthy to be investigating something in the next 3+ months. Even if the documents aren’t the primary focus, they will be brought up as context.

Additionally, the Trump document investigation will continue and also drag this topic along.

Given the speed of investigations, I don’t see either thread finishing before 3 months. My primary case for YES would be that they’re in a dormant period at around that time.

Conflux avatar
Confluxsold Ṁ38 of NO

Oh sorry, I just realized I sold M$38 NO shares at a loss from 48 to 49, which technically contradicts my promise to not bet on this market unless I feel it is very mispriced. I don't think this affects the spirit of the promise - in fact, I now have less conflict-of-interest since I hold no shares. But it goes against the words of the promise so I apologize.

Conflux avatar
Confluxis predicting YES at 38%