Will at least ten users trade on this market within the next week?
Basic
28
Ṁ8443resolved Feb 10
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to "YES" if, by 11:59 PM at February 14, 2022 PST, at least ten separate users have traded on this market.
I think this site is cool, so I wanted to do a prediction market, and this seems like one whose dynamics are kind of interesting! If I do another market it'll probably be about a real thing though.
Feb 9, 5:50pm: I probably should've resolved this yesterday, but it's now pretty clear that even if you just count people who comment, over ten people have traded on this market. So I'm resolving it! This was fun.
No idea why someone bought M$1000 of no! I think it's kind of funny.
However...I'm not exactly sure how Manifold Markets' algorithm works, and I recognize there are complicated delicate balances of incentives to stop the system from being exploitable, but I just lost M$36 for creating this market, and would've gained money for incorrectly resolving it as "no." I think this provides a perverse incentive for resolving markets wrong / not creating markets.
Feb 9, 6:14pm: Actually, maybe I did gain currency?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by: