If Kamala Harris loses the election, resolves PROB to the average of the market probability in the week before election day.

Otherwise, on July 1, 2025, I will consider all 25 current Cabinet-level positions (convenient number!) and resolve to 4x the number which were held by the same person at the end of the Biden administration. (This is the same as the proportion.)

Context

Harris has been unclear about how different she plans to be compared to Joe Biden. Also, she may be facing a Republican-controlled Senate if she tries to confirm new Cabinet members. So as far as I know, it's an open question: will she fully install her own Cabinet, or retain the Biden people?

Historical precedents on this vary. When LBJ took office after JFK's assassination, he started by retaining the entire cabinet. Perhaps a closer precedent, when George H.W. Bush took office from Reagan, he kept only two: the Secretaries of Treasury and Education. (There were a few fewer Cabinet positions then, so that would imply a baseline resolution around 10%.)

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.