Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Democratic anti-vaxxer opponent to Joe Biden, is somehow consistently polling in the mid-teens:

• 15% in HarrisX

• 18% in Big Village

• 17% in Quinnipiac

• 15% in Suffolk

• 17% in Rasmussen

• 12% in TIPP Insights

— all June polls. Manifold gives him a mid-single-digit chance of winning the 2024 election. However, one theory of mine for why he might be overrated is that his supporters don't know much about his platform (but have a negative assocation with "Biden" and a positive one with "Kennedy"), and increased searching/media scrutiny will decrease his poll numbers.

Here's...an attempt to quantify that. If /Conflux/will-rfk-jr-break-his-google-trends resolves NO, this market resolves N/A. If it resolves YES, I will consider the next two polls by pollsters listed above. If he drops by at least 3% on average in these polls (compared to the previous poll by that pollster), resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO.

I recognize this isn't the perfect attempt to formalize my theory. Maybe I'll make something different, perhaps more subjective, later.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.