Will RFK Jr. break his Google Trends record by end of July?
35
429
670
resolved Aug 1
Resolved
NO

Searches for "Robert F. Kennedy, Jr." (Democratic anti-vaxxer opponent to Joe Biden who Manifold thinks has a 4% chance of being nominated...we'll see) have peaked on April 6, 2023, according to Google Trends. Will the record be broken in June or July?

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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bought Ṁ7 of YES

have I missed something?

predicted YES

@Daniel_MC You’re looking at weekly, the market cares about daily. Sorry for not specifying that more clearly, but I think it was implied by me stating the day?

predicted YES

@Conflux Ah right

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@Daniel_MC the 5th-6th was when he announced his run for presidency

predicted YES

Somehow after putting 107 on yes and pushing the price from 37 to 52, my exit limit order at 60 hit before the price went back down to 30. I'm a lucky man today ahah.

@Daniel_MC @Conflux

> You’re looking at weekly, the market cares about daily

how do we see the past 'daily' stats for each day since april 6th in the trends interface?
There seems to be a drop down to show trends from past day, past 90 days (single day data points), and then past 12 months (weekly data points), If we select the past 90 days option, the april 6th data point is no longer there?

predicted YES

@Blomfilter Oh hmm, that’s actually somewhat annoying. I was definitely looking at “Past 90 days”.

predicted YES

@Conflux Anyone have any suggestions for how to find this data?

@Conflux I think alot of the NO betters are misunderstanding the criteria here if they can't see the data 🤣

predicted NO

@Blomfilter Select Custom time range.

@na_pewno Thank you! dropdown went offscreen on my 13" screen 🤣

to see the search results during the spike

"before:2023-04-07 after:2023-04-05 robert f kennedy"

What do people think will happen in the next two weeks?

bought Ṁ20 of YES

the second link appears to be broken, fyi :)

@PeterBuyukliev Thanks - should be fixed…