This market doesn't have specific resolution criteria, but I'll try to resolve to the consensus feeling among Proofniks, particularly teachers and administrators, at the end of Thursday. I may resolve to a percentage. I will resolve N/A if Proof does not hold school in person tomorrow [Wednesday, January 4].
Market on the reverse, and whether it will happen:
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ35 | |
| 2 | Ṁ8 | |
| 3 | Ṁ7 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
Aggregate poll results among students were 3 Yes, 2 Somewhat, 14 No, which would suggest 4/19 ≈ 21%. However, I also said I would weight teachers and administrators, who I have not polled but I think broadly do not regret this choice. Also, I think some of the regret here just reflects general preference for online school, combined with expecting that it would happen (so, for example, not being able to sleep in as much).
The rain/storm/flooding did not cause huge issues with commuting, as were anticipated, which is mostly what this market was trying to measure. (At least, on Wednesday … a tree fell on the Caltrain tracks yesterday and school was still in person).
Anyway, I’m splitting the difference and doing PROB 11% (which coincidentally is the current market probability). Hopefully that feels fair.