Based on the FiveThirtyEight Republican primary polling average on the day before the debate vs. one week later. % indicates percentage points (so going from 15 to 20 is a 5% increase). Resolves N/A if there is no debate by end of November 8th.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.