Conflux
resolved Jan 27
How many total minutes after 10pm will I stay up this week?
Resolved
24

Including just the five school nights: Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. I'm ambitiously attempting to make this number 0. Or at least to minimize it. This is because I was pretty tired last week.

These days I typically go to bed between like 10:15 and 11:30, which equates to between 75 and 450 aggregate minutes for this market. Last week it was around 280. I haven't gone to bed before 10pm in awhile, but I did it every night for like 4/5 of last year.

This market resolves based on the bedtimes I write in my diary, which I typically do right before bed. It probably undershoots by a couple minutes, but not much. (Of course, it undershoots by the time spent falling asleep, but I can't count that.) If I forget to write it for any day, I'll use my best estimate. Anyway, I'll add them all up and resolve to the total, or to 500 if it's somehow more than that.

I'll post my sleep times here as I remember to do so.

Sunday night: 9:58

Monday night: 10:17

Tuesday night: 10:01

Wednesday night: 10:06

Thursday night: 9:59

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ181
2Ṁ3
3Ṁ3
4Ṁ2
5Ṁ0
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Confluxpredicted LOWER

This market was really helpful for motivation, thank y’all for betting against me! I felt less tired this week. (Though maybe my bedtimes were artificially earlier.) I liked that it was a numeric instead of all-or-nothing, it meant every minute counted.

How do payouts work in numerical markets? If I pushed it up from 61 to 81, say, how would various end results be resolved? Am I saying I believe it's near 81, (higher payout for closer numbers,) or at LEAST 81, (full payout for 81+)?

Confluxpredicted LOWER at 12%

@TylerColeman Assuming I understand currently: the latter. Numeric works under the hood like a YES/NO market that resolves to a probability.

@TylerColeman Nice, thanks! I'm new to MM.

Confluxpredicted LOWER at 12%

@TylerColeman By the way, if you wanted to specifically predict that it’s near 81, you could bet HIGHER and also set a LOWER limit order at 100 or wherever - this would have the effect of auto-buying LOWER if the market goes up.

does the 9:58 count as 0 or -2? :P

Confluxpredicted LOWER at 8%

@Cadence 0. Minutes before 10pm have no effect

Confluxpredicted LOWER at 20%

y’all will be PROVEN WRONG

I think I’m gonna put the sleep times in the description.

Confluxbought Ṁ500 of LOWER

Forgot how hard numeric markets are to move! Well, more potential profits for good predictors