How late will I stay up in 2024? (Excludes time zone stuff, see description)
12
60
1k
2025
91%
2am
55%
3am
25%
4am
17%
5am
9%
6am

Each component market resolve YES as soon as I stay up that late during 2024, counting New Year’s 2025 for fun. (This means that if 3am resolves YES, then 2am must resolve YES first. In the event of an all-nighter, they would all resolve YES.) If I go to bed earlier than that time but am unable to fall asleep, or successfully fall asleep earlier but wake up such that I am awake at that time, that wouldn't count for this market. I must be intentionally staying up past that time.

The latest I’ve stayed up is around 2:40, and I regretted it (see linked 2am market). The second-latest is…last night, probably around 1:40. I typically go to bed between 10 and 12:30 these days — times which have been steadily trending later. Plus, I’m going to college… (hopefully)

Time zone fine print: When traveling between time zones, I will consider the earliest time zone that I’ve been in that day. For instance, if I travel from California to New York (3 hours difference), and go to bed at 4am EST, that would be 1am PST and would not count for this market. Furthermore, there will be a buffer of 1 hour per day as I adapt to the new time zone. So the next day, 4am EST would count as 2am, then the next day, 3am, then finally 4am. For another example, if I go from California to England (8 hours difference), there would be a full 8-day period where I could gradually acclimate to GMT without affecting this market. I know this is a pretty aggressive condition, but I just don’t want time zone shenanigans to affect this market (there was a period when my previous markets where highly contingent on me travelling to Europe).

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get Ṁ600 play money