Resolution Criteria

Between noon November 1 and noon December 31, 2023, will the stock price of Novo Nordisk and McDonalds have gone in the same direction (both up or both down)?

Stock prices will be determined via the NYSE price. If the NYSE ceases to exist, this question will resolve as ambiguous. If either company ceases to exist due to bankruptcy, this will be treated as the stock price going to 0. If either company is acquired or goes private, the stock price used will be the last public price.

Background Info

Novo Nordisk is a company which developed semaglutide as a drug for diabetics (under the name Ozempic) and recently for weight loss (under the name Wegovy). There have been worries that the widespread use of semaglutide as a weight loss drug will cut into restaurant profits.

McDonalds, a fast food franchise, and Novo Nordisk are both publicly traded companies.

This question was part of the OPTIC Fall 2023 Bay Area forecasting tournament (organized by @toms, @saulmunn, and @JingyiWang). I loved the questions, so I'm copying them (with permission) to Manifold (from private Metaculus). If resolution is unclear, I will copy whatever decision is made by OPTIC!