The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service has warned of an impending false flag attack before or during the celebrations of Orthodox Christmas at the 7th of January.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-warns-russia-may-stage-deadly-false-flag-attack-to-sabotage-us-led-peace-talks/ar-AA1TrKox
Resolution Criteria
The market resolves YES if such an attack with civilian casualties occurs in Russia or Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories between January 2-7, 2026. For resolution, no explicit evidence that the attack was a false flag attack will be necessary, just that an attack occurs as predicted.
Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The attack must be a large-scale provocation or terrorist-style attack, not routine military operations. A single drone strike killing one person as part of normal daily attacks does not qualify. The attack should be significant enough to be very present in Russian media afterwards.
Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The attack must involve at least three civilian casualties to qualify for resolution.
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@The_Nth_unique_trader it looks like this is about Russia or territory temporarily occupied by Russia, so they will still be celebrating in accordance with Julian calendar — even though Ukrainian orthodox Christmas is the 25th
@KnMatt I believe anything could be seen as sabotaging peace talks? Especially anything involving civilian casualties
@KnMatt I added some clarifications. An ordinary attack does not qualify and it must involve civilian casualties, at least three.
@bonatschi Russia already fabricated a drone attack on Putin's residence, I guess they need something bigger and with more casualties.
Drone strikes into Russia have killed russian civilians today, i.e. in the timeframe. Hence this should resolve as yes. Multiple sources (below) have reported a certain drone strike. in Belgorod with 1 casualty (so far).
@bonatschi No, a drone strike killing one person does not qualify. Especially if it's part of "normal" daily attacks.
The attack should qualify as a large-scale provocation as described in the article I linked. Maybe some Christmas gathering is targeted, maybe some other gathering, maybe something symbolic. In any case it should be a terrorist-style attack and would naturally be very present in Russian media afterwards.
Does a drone strike onto Russian territory count as an attack? (If they take out a civilian?) A minimum number of civilian casualties needed?
@bonatschi Lets say at least three? I wrote about some other factors in another reply, but you can also refer to the article I linked in the question to get an idea about what would qualify as an attack
would certainly align with the fake "orthodox christians are being persecuted" narrative that russian propagandists are trying to create atm
but also the warning acts as a deterrent and nobody with half a brain would believe russia so would be a wasted effort, tough call