This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.
They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
1,000
3.00What's your reasoning behind "They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based)?" This just makes me think the market is more likely to be misresolved. If DeSantis drops out of the race it would be unambiguous, so why include this in the resolution criteria for any other reason than to make the market more easily manipulable?
@NathanShowell it's a general template, here it will be YES or NO. I don't appreciate the baseless accusation of bad faith.