Resolution criteria
This market will resolve based on the official closing price of the NASDAQ Composite Index (IXIC) on August 31, 2026 (the final trading day of the month), as reported by Yahoo Finance.
Each threshold will resolve independently as follows:
YES: If the closing price of the NASDAQ Composite on August 31, 2026, is strictly greater than the threshold.
NO: If the closing price is equal to or less than the threshold.
The official resolution source will be the "Close" price listed in the historical data on Yahoo Finance (^IXIC).
Background
The NASDAQ Composite Index (IXIC) has experienced elevated volatility in mid-2026. After reaching a peak of 27,190.21 on June 1, 2026, a tech and semiconductor-driven selloff pulled the index down to a close of 24,442.94 on July 29, 2026, marking its second market correction of the year. The index subsequently clawed back some losses, closing at 25,122.18 on July 30, 2026.
Traders can monitor the index's performance leading up to the end of August via Yahoo Finance or Google Finance.
1,000The IXIC closed at 26,484 yesterday. The ≥25,500 answer is trading at just 48.5% — this is massively underpriced. For IXIC to fall below 25,500 by end of August, it would need to drop nearly 1,000 points (3.7%) in just a few trading days. That magnitude of decline in such a short window would require a major market shock.
Similarly, ≥26,000 at 45.6% seems very cheap — IXIC is currently 484 points above that level (1.8% buffer).
Historically, weekly drops >3.7% in the NASDAQ are quite rare outside of major crashes. Both of these answers should be priced significantly higher.