Whether or not OpenAI changes its name. In any capacity including board member, consultant, forms or joins new company that's a vendor or partner to OpenAI.
From comments: Resolves YES if evidence or reliable reporting a contract has been signed.
1,000
3.00@CivilizedGuy My understanding of the situation evolved over the week. I assumed from the start he'd have a formal agreement with the board and this would be evident in SEC filings. It then turned out that OpenAI isn't publicly traded and I had dug myself into a hole. A lot of people here are way more familiar with OpenAI than I am and went on the assumption that their knowledge was common knowledge even though they didn't know me from Adam. This was not wise. I said several times that I'm learning the ropes here. That risk, if someone didn't price it in, it's on them.
One other very wrong assumption I made is that here, like everywhere else I've been, traders seek out any information to be gleaned from anything other traders do or say, and therefore, reveal information about themselves strategically or at least intentionally. I am glad that it turned out not everyone here does that. Even very smart people.
Do you have a view as to whether Sam has been seen in the office doing things? Was Sam even seen in "the office"? Does walking and breathing count as doing things or does he have to be talking to someone? Weigh in here:
Neither I nor anyone else has come up with anything to show he ever signed anything in last couple weeks. Technically he doesn't need to if he and the board are all OK with him holding CEO title. How anyone can define what Sam "being back" consists of, I have no idea, but it's just too opaque to resolve YES.
@ClubmasterTransparent You also have the option of resolving later, based on what the state evidence is at some point in the future, as to whether Sam had signed any such agreement before this morning. Timely resolution is nice, but in the face of unclear evidence, resolution doesn't have to be immediate.
I like to explicitly say for some of my markets that they will resolve as per the state of the evidence on a certain date, that way I can avoid this problem of whether something happening but not being publicised before market close counts. But I'm not sure it was clear in your market whether only the state of the evidence today mattered.
This can be unresolved by a mod if you wanted to resolve it at a later date. Probably if it comes out that Sam did in fact sign something before this morning, people will ask for this!
All, I haven't found anything yet but I have more places to look. I also have a day job today. This is the time to offer evidence if you have it. I will resolve it soon.
After creating this market I realized I'd just assumed OpenAI was publicly traded. I at least had never seen so much general-readership excitement over a CEO change at a company that wasn't public or at least near an IPO. Had OpenAI been publicly traded, then it would have had to file public statement w SEC resolving this question and almost certainly would do that before market open today. Bummer for me.
@ClubmasterTransparent Oop! A lot of people reading this probably don't use Google any more. Silly me!
@ClubmasterTransparent Hey I heard Microsoft put ChatGPT in Bing. There we go! Cooking with gas now!
@TheBayesian my joke is falling flat. I really am a newer user though. And I am pretty sure I fell for a joke by @FredBush yesterday. I am feeling this site out.
@NicoDelon This is helpful to me. People who are confused need to not bet any more now please, I cannot keep explaining about the resolution of this market and I'm acting in good faith. Now. Isn't it closed? I thought it was going to close itself automatically at midnight and after that I could research whether or not the resolution criteria had been met and then resolve it and then my resolution would get rated by a sample of people chosen by some criterion I can only guess at. Then I was going to see what happened.
You're doing fine! If you want to avoid more questions, you could edit your title or description.
For example, a title of "Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI this week?" [Officially, not the "In Principle Agreement"]" would make it more clear, if I'm understanding your comment clarifications correctly.
@ClubmasterTransparent On desktop, the edit button shows up when you move your mouse next to the title:
@jacksonpolack No kidding! My sister is giving piano lessons to an Iranian spy who works in tech! Can you ask your uncle if he knows sn Ashley?
@ClubmasterTransparent Okay all memes aside for a second, your new title is not the same thing as your old title. What if he signs an agreement today or tomorrow? Any time before Monday is supposed to count, right?
@Joshua hourglass thingy still says November 26. With this stupid holiday I thought today was the 27th. Market stays open. No wonder I didn't see any new public information right away.
@Joshua TYSM please check for me one last time. NYSE opens 9;30 am Eastern, but I'm sitting in Pacific time and my sundial is broken.
That's how it looks to me, I'm also in Pacific
@Joshua do we know whether this will close at 9:30 am Eastern? Already spent 5-10 minutes the other day trying to determine whether it's defaulting to user's time zone or whether everyone around the world sees Pacific.
@ClubmasterTransparent Yeah, it closes at the same for everyone so this would be 9:30 AM monday for EST.