Will Sam Altman sign a formal agreement to return to OpenAI as described below before NYSE opens Monday?
Basic
254
73k
resolved Nov 28
Resolved
NO

Whether or not OpenAI changes its name. In any capacity including board member, consultant, forms or joins new company that's a vendor or partner to OpenAI.

From comments: Resolves YES if evidence or reliable reporting a contract has been signed.

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predicted NO

Sam isn’t back, yet. More markets to play in are still active.

predicted YES

In hindsight this question seems unclear.

Was the question asking:

— will it be necessary for Sam A to sign an agreement?

Or

— will a signing occur by the Monday morning deadline?

What was the OP’s intent?

@CivilizedGuy My understanding of the situation evolved over the week. I assumed from the start he'd have a formal agreement with the board and this would be evident in SEC filings. It then turned out that OpenAI isn't publicly traded and I had dug myself into a hole. A lot of people here are way more familiar with OpenAI than I am and went on the assumption that their knowledge was common knowledge even though they didn't know me from Adam. This was not wise. I said several times that I'm learning the ropes here. That risk, if someone didn't price it in, it's on them.

One other very wrong assumption I made is that here, like everywhere else I've been, traders seek out any information to be gleaned from anything other traders do or say, and therefore, reveal information about themselves strategically or at least intentionally. I am glad that it turned out not everyone here does that. Even very smart people.

predicted YES

Do you have a view as to whether Sam has been seen in the office doing things? Was Sam even seen in "the office"? Does walking and breathing count as doing things or does he have to be talking to someone? Weigh in here:

https://manifold.markets/ClubmasterTransparent/will-at-least-one-openai-employee-s?r=Q2x1Ym1hc3RlclRyYW5zcGFyZW50

Neither I nor anyone else has come up with anything to show he ever signed anything in last couple weeks. Technically he doesn't need to if he and the board are all OK with him holding CEO title. How anyone can define what Sam "being back" consists of, I have no idea, but it's just too opaque to resolve YES.

predicted NO

@ClubmasterTransparent You also have the option of resolving later, based on what the state evidence is at some point in the future, as to whether Sam had signed any such agreement before this morning. Timely resolution is nice, but in the face of unclear evidence, resolution doesn't have to be immediate.

I like to explicitly say for some of my markets that they will resolve as per the state of the evidence on a certain date, that way I can avoid this problem of whether something happening but not being publicised before market close counts. But I'm not sure it was clear in your market whether only the state of the evidence today mattered.

This can be unresolved by a mod if you wanted to resolve it at a later date. Probably if it comes out that Sam did in fact sign something before this morning, people will ask for this!

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington ^ seconding all of that.

@chrisjbillington Thank you. Sometimes hard way to learn is best way.

All, I haven't found anything yet but I have more places to look. I also have a day job today. This is the time to offer evidence if you have it. I will resolve it soon.

After creating this market I realized I'd just assumed OpenAI was publicly traded. I at least had never seen so much general-readership excitement over a CEO change at a company that wasn't public or at least near an IPO. Had OpenAI been publicly traded, then it would have had to file public statement w SEC resolving this question and almost certainly would do that before market open today. Bummer for me.

May I submit that Manifold Sam Altman markets as a group are almost surely the most efficient Sam Altman markets in the world.

Selling my no shares to quit while I'm ahead lol. All these OAI markets are crazy

@Manifold you guys are aware that typing fast breaks the tagging feature somehow? @FredBush I'm talking to you.

Hm people don't pay as much attention around this place to the comments as I thought they would. Or it's just this market. Or it's just me. Or if some influencer does it. Time to haul out the trusty google.

@ClubmasterTransparent Oop! A lot of people reading this probably don't use Google any more. Silly me!

@ClubmasterTransparent Hey I heard Microsoft put ChatGPT in Bing. There we go! Cooking with gas now!

predicted YES

@ClubmasterTransparent I’m confused about what you’re trying to say

@TheBayesian I’m very confused. None of the comments are helping.

@TheBayesian my joke is falling flat. I really am a newer user though. And I am pretty sure I fell for a joke by @FredBush yesterday. I am feeling this site out.

predicted YES

My dad works for OpenAI (Interim ex-CEO) and he says that everyone is enjoying their thanksgiving weekend but that Sam will be back by the end of the year and they're all very happy they don't have to go work for Micosoft.

@NicoDelon This is helpful to me. People who are confused need to not bet any more now please, I cannot keep explaining about the resolution of this market and I'm acting in good faith. Now. Isn't it closed? I thought it was going to close itself automatically at midnight and after that I could research whether or not the resolution criteria had been met and then resolve it and then my resolution would get rated by a sample of people chosen by some criterion I can only guess at. Then I was going to see what happened.

@joshua you seem helpful and God knows I'm not going back to the FAQs. Do I have to do anything right now? I have to ask @FredBush something.

You're doing fine! If you want to avoid more questions, you could edit your title or description.

For example, a title of "Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI this week?" [Officially, not the "In Principle Agreement"]" would make it more clear, if I'm understanding your comment clarifications correctly.

predicted NO

My uncle's the Iranian spy inside OpenAI's executive team and he does not agree.

predicted YES

@ClubmasterTransparent On desktop, the edit button shows up when you move your mouse next to the title:

@Joshua thanks, crap I see it's not closed.

predicted YES

@ClubmasterTransparent Wait, why would this question be closed? The week isn't over.

@ClubmasterTransparent People are betting based on your cryptic comments. That is not helping.

@Joshua crap am I acting boomer? I am on a phone for the record.

@NicoDelon if people find something cryptic they would do well NOT to bet on it.

@jacksonpolack No kidding! My sister is giving piano lessons to an Iranian spy who works in tech! Can you ask your uncle if he knows sn Ashley?

@ClubmasterTransparent Okay all memes aside for a second, your new title is not the same thing as your old title. What if he signs an agreement today or tomorrow? Any time before Monday is supposed to count, right?

@Joshua hourglass thingy still says November 26. With this stupid holiday I thought today was the 27th. Market stays open. No wonder I didn't see any new public information right away.

Ah, new title is more clear! When do you mean for the market to close? Right now it says:

@Joshua TYSM please check for me one last time. NYSE opens 9;30 am Eastern, but I'm sitting in Pacific time and my sundial is broken.

That's how it looks to me, I'm also in Pacific

@Joshua do we know whether this will close at 9:30 am Eastern? Already spent 5-10 minutes the other day trying to determine whether it's defaulting to user's time zone or whether everyone around the world sees Pacific.

@ClubmasterTransparent Yeah, it closes at the same for everyone so this would be 9:30 AM monday for EST.

@ClubmasterTransparent the roughly a quarter of users on Pacific time should be curious.

@Joshua We are good. Except my head hurts. Thanks again.

@NicoDelon I thought today was Sunday. Thank you for bringing that to my attention.

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