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MANIFOLD
How many results will a search for "Dark Brandon" on Amazon Prime return on December 17, 2023 ?
21
Ṁ830Ṁ2.8k
resolved Dec 19
ResolvedN/A
13%
Under 500
0.1%
500 to 999
13%
1000 to 1499
5%
1500 to 1999
5%
2000 to 2499
65%
2500 or Over

I won't participate in this market or list Dark Brandon items on Amazon myself. If it comes to my attention that another Manifold user has listed or caused to be listed enough Dark Brandon items themselves the next 30 days to affect the results, I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.

Edited: There was conflicting data Dec 17 2023, plus I thought I'd set it to end 12:01 am on Dec 18 but I see it's more like 11:59 pm Dec 18. Working on a fair resolution but bet at your own risk.

ETA2: I've done my best here. Please post publicly any counterarguments to my resolution. I will not entertain other feedback. Thanks all for noticing my throwaway of a learning market.

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Folks, what I'm seeing is

1,270. I'll wait a day or two to resolve while entertaining explanations of how anyone is getting a significantly different number. Are you guys sure you're searching within Amazon PRIME? Not plain Amazon and not Google and not asking ChatGPT.

i posted a screenshot almost 2 weeks ago, so people have had plenty of time to reach out to me if confused. Not to mention why would I have chosen the increments I did if there were 2500+ results a month ago?

@ClubmasterTransparent I get the same

On desktop, I get 7 pages of results, each with 12 rows of 4 items.

Oddly, the search does say this on page 7:

Claiming it showing items 289-306 out of 30,000. But there are no pages after 7.

So maybe the actual number of results is 306? And Amazon is just giving large numbers for no good reason? I am confused.

Searched dark brandon then toggled prime and my "see all" button says 4,615 - did I miss something?

@shankypanky On mobile I get 1849 without prime, and 1269 with prime.

Does this depend on where we live? Prime is just free shipping, and different items are free to ship to different locations?

maybe? but I don't think so since you and I are both in the US and although I've been overseas a long time my Amazon billing and shipping info is definitely all set to Seattle.

wild I just went into the app again and got different results.

with prime:

without:

on the computer it only says "...of over 1,000 results" and I can't see a count but I also have 7 pages

(between watching Putin videos on YT yesterday and scrolling around this corner of Amazon from two devices I expect some wild suggestions from the algos in the coming days)

@shankypanky Thanks for checking. I've asked for help from a mod. I'm on a phone, maybe different interface on other devices?

@ClubmasterTransparent yeah my phone shows anywhere from 1,266 to 4,615 🤷

@shankypanky I'm inclined to think anyone who bet after I posted the screenshot 12 days ago has not much ground to stand on now. No one continued the discussion back then.

@ClubmasterTransparent yeah I only just saw this market and don't hold a position. I'd be inclined to take the same position as the majority but I'm opting out - just thought I'd share what I see on this side because the first result was wildly different from the others in the recent comments.

@ClubmasterTransparent actually I just changed sort by to price high to low and hit 10,000+

I get 1266 for featured, 392 for best sellers. I think those sort bys are actually filters. The total number is over 10,000

@GCS I did not expect to learn so much about Amazon search function by joining Manifold.

@ClubmasterTransparent

Ah, yes I get the same when not searching by "featured"

@Joshua "Featured" is the default. I think. I am no longer so certain I know my way around Amazon. I tried once to make mine default to "sort low to high" and did not succeed. Maybe they have integrated additional AI capabilities into their search and made it worse.

@ClubmasterTransparent

Soooo how do you plan to resolve? Amazon certainly isn't making this easy 😅

@Joshua I am going to sleep on it. Being too extremely online doesn't serve me well. Thanks as always for moral support.

@GCS I agree with these results

@ClubmasterTransparent

Yes this explains to some reasons why Amazon search has gotten worse. Unfortunately I don't know to fix it. Maybe sort by customer reviews, or filter to 4+ stars and sort low to high.

A lot of the results seem to be unrelated, but that's still a lot of Dark Brandon merch.

@Anovak Whoa, that's nothing ike what I see even taking off the Prime filter. Here's what I've been looking at:

@Anovak are you still active? I have asked a mod to help me resolve this but I have zero clue how you got 50K results.

@ClubmasterTransparent you'd probably see something similar if you searched on desktop instead of mobile, except I can't find any way to actually see all those results.

@Joshua This is the first market I made, my Sam Altman one was not much after. It seems making clear uncontroversial resolution criteria is not as simple as it looked

@ClubmasterTransparent Amazon's way of counting search results might just be weird / incorrect. I typed in "Dark Brandon" on desktop and went to the third page of results, it seems to still say 50,000+ when I do it now.