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Barak Ravid to CNN: thousands of Israeli troops have entered Gaza from the north in the past hour or two, a significantly bigger incursion than previous ones

@AviSchwartz "Barak Ravid is an Israeli journalist and commentator, who worked for Israel's Channel 13 News"

rules are unclear. Does a large scale raid qualify? Apparently the past raid had approximately 1000 people involved. It seems like the current raid (if it is one) is larger.

@MaybeNotDepends "more than 100 Israeli troops invade Gaza before October 31" seems to me clear criteria...

@Emanuele98 Maybe "invade" means "and they don't come back immediately". At least, that is perhaps one way of distinguishing between "raids" and "invasion" that does not depend on the number of people involved.

https://apnews.com/article/e41b5b12e8cdf9db62395314d9a782b6

BREAKING: IDF spokesman says Israeli military ground forces will expand they operations inside the Gaza strip tonight

https://x.com/barakravid/status/1717954286280126772?s=46&t=WKRyFNaUStQaXCTlWvKsEA

@AviSchwartz @CivilizedGuy Taking your earlier point about the number 100 not being important, does "full scale" mean the huge number of reservists invading on foot, or would steady, medium-sized tank attacks eventually count if they got steadily larger?

OPERATIONAL UPDATE: The IDF conducted strikes on Hamas terrorist targets over the last 24 hours. IDF ground troops, fighter jets and UAVs struck:

Anti-tank missile launch sites

Command & control centers

Hamas terrorist operatives

The troops exited the area and no injuries were reported.

https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1717775899238584737

Always about ten tanks, from what I can tell.

At this time I am not going to resolve the question.

1. The Merkava tank has a crew of four. I count 7-8 tanks plus one bulldozer in the video available from news sources. That’s 30-40 troops.

2. There are no infantry troops apparent in the video. There may be one M-113 armored personnel carrier in the video but that only carries 9-13 troops depending on the configuration.

So while the Israelis did cross the border, in my opinion they did not meet the requirements of the question.

Keep watching for the larger scale invasion.

@CivilizedGuy I saw 11 tanks and they can carry ~3-4 infantry each in addition to their crew, but it's your discretion.

@Panfilo The question also states “large scale military invasion” which even the IDF indicates this is clearly not.

@CivilizedGuy Then you shouldn't have even mentioned the number 100. If there were more tanks off camera this easily could have crossed that threshold. Better to be unambiguous.

@CivilizedGuy I can agree that there is no visual evidence or statements about at least 100 troops (But there are at least 11 tanks, a bulldozer and infantry, to stay low will be 70 troops), but perhaps it would be better to specify whether 100 troops coming in and out of Gaza still makes the condition of the question.

@CivilizedGuy I agree that this should not resolve NO. But let's say that tomorrow the IDF raids Gaza with 100 troops, and retreats into Israeli territory a few hours later. Should that even count? It's not exactly the large invasion we were waiting for.

Maybe it's better to clarify that they need to stay in for some time, such that it's no longer just a short raid?

@Shump Many different scenarios can play out in the fog of war that cannot be captured in a single sentence on Manifold. I think you and others understand that a large scale invasion has to occur for the question to resolve to yes.

@CivilizedGuy Personally, no, my opinion of this market was based on the fact that they were talking about precisely 100 units, and the newspapers had speculated that an alternative to the invasion was relatively small operations in the enclave (which moreover is happening, so the question is when these small operations will exceed 100 units, which is why I thought it was almost certain)...

In preparation for the next stages of combat, the IDF operated in northern Gaza. IDF tanks & infantry struck numerous terrorist cells, infrastructure and anti-tank missile launch posts. The soldiers have since exited the area and returned to Israeli territory.

https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1717401249199329634

@Emanuele98 Yup, the visual on the tanks alone would put the total troop number at about 100 with their crews. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5n9KE-qEnI

Report: Israeli ground forces conducted ‘relatively large’ Gaza incursion

Israeli ground forces carried out a relatively large incursion into the Gaza Strip overnight to attack Hamas positions, according to Reuters news agency quot...

@Panfilo Tagging @CivilizedGuy in the event of resolution. Each tank has 4-7 guys. They've withdrawn but this was def a "news report showing an invasion by tanks and troops" numbering over 100.

@Panfilo Also this is a good distinction between this and the similar markets!