Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if credible evidence demonstrates that the Trump administration knowingly reported false economic data on December 18, 2025, by claiming data gaps due to the government shutdown while intentionally misrepresenting inflation figures. Resolution requires documented proof of intentional deception rather than methodological limitations caused by the shutdown.

Resolution sources: The November CPI report was released on December 18, 2025, and resolution will rely on official statements from the Trump administration, investigative journalism from major outlets, congressional inquiries, or legal proceedings that establish knowing falsification. The market creator's determination will be final if no definitive external evidence emerges.

Background

The 2025 government shutdown lasted 43 days, the longest in U.S. history, and only one employee at the Bureau of Labor Statistics was working, causing scheduled releases of economic data to be delayed. The BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to the lapse in appropriations.

Consumer prices rose 2.7% in November compared to a year earlier, marking a notable reduction from 3% year-over-year inflation in September. However, many economists raised red flags about housing, the single largest component of inflation, with KPMG's chief economist calling it "a wacky number" because shelter costs "basically flatlined October by carrying forward September," which the extended government shutdown disrupted.

Considerations

Economists noted that the BLS appeared to have "put in zero inflation in multiple categories" while calculating owners' equivalent rent for approximately one-third of cities. One chief economist stated the November CPI report is "full of noise and lacks the normal breadth and depth" and that "we do not have sufficient sense of price movements over the past two months". The distinction between technical data collection failures and intentional misrepresentation will be critical to resolution.