Will Tesla Vehicle deliveries q3 2023 exceed 450,000?
22
123
430
resolved Oct 2
Resolved
NO

Figures usually announced by Tesla shortly after quarter ends

last four quarters:

Q3 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter 343820

Q4 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter 405278

Q1 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2023 422875

Q2 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2023 466140

The equivilent press release for Q3 2023 will be used but if not available, I may wait for Q3 financial reports. If Semi or Cybertruck numbers are included in the announcement they will be included in the relevant number but if not shown will not be included.

Background

Prices have been reduced presumably to stimulate demand, but is production also being throttled according to demand? Elon Musk seems to have suggested it is pretty much full pace production and they can generate enough demand by cutting prices. Freemont and Shanghai may well be at or near production capacity limits but Berlin and Texas are ramping up recently reaching 5000 per week production rates. The latest official guidance is

"For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million cars for the year." However, there are some suggestions that 2 million may not be impossible. 1.8 million is only 450k per quarter and they have managed near 440k in 2 quarters to March 2023 and near 480k in Q2 2023 so does practically no growth or even reductions with two factories ramping up make any sense? So is the 1.8 million figure a well sandbagged number or is demand causing production to be throttled back?

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predicted NO

Q4 production market is up at

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/will-tesla-vehicle-production-q3-20-e7c56d84bfab

Will Tesla Vehicle production q4 2023 exceed 500,000?
54% chance. Figures usually announced by Tesla shortly after quarter ends last five quarters: Q3 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter 365923 Q4 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter 439701 Q1 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2023 440808 Q2 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2023 479700 Q3 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter-2023 430488 The equivilent press release for Q4 2023 will be used but if not available may wait for Q3 financial reports. If Semi or Cybertruck numbers are included in the announcement they will be included in the relevant number but if not shown will not be included. Background Prices have been reduced presumably to stimulate demand, but is production also being throttled according to demand? Elon Musk seems to have suggested it is pretty much full pace production and they can generate enough demand by cutting prices. Freemont and Shanghai may well be at or near production capacity limits but Berlin and Texas are ramping up recently reaching 5000 per week production rates. The latest official guidance is "For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year." Having produced 1350996 in the first three quarters 1.8m requires production of 449k. However, at 2022 q4 earnings there were some suggestions that 2 million may not be impossible. 1.8 million is only 450k per quarter and they have managed near 440k in 2 quarters to March 2023 and near 480k in Q2 2023 so does practically no growth or even reductions with two factories ramping up make any sense? So one line of reasoning queried whether the 1.8 million figure was a well sandbagged number or whether demand causing production to be throttled back? Above may have failed to account for other explanations: Q2 Earning call suggested there would be production shutdowns but it isn't clear to what extent these were for upgrading production speed compared to other things like retool for Highland upgrade. While there were shutdowns, did this fully account for lower production or were there also speed reduction? [image]So is there some throttling of production or is there some other explanation?

Re Production

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/will-tesla-vehicle-production-q3-20

Will Tesla Vehicle production q3 2023 exceed 500,000?
14% chance. Figures usually announced by Tesla shortly after quarter ends last four quarters: Q3 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter 365923 Q4 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter 439701 Q1 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2023 440808 Q2 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2023 479700 The equivilent press release for Q3 2023 will be used but if not available may wait for Q3 financial reports. If Semi or Cybertruck numbers are included in the announcement they will be included in the relevant number but if not shown will not be included. Background Prices have been reduced presumably to stimulate demand, but is production also being throttled according to demand? Elon Musk seems to have suggested it is pretty much full pace production and they can generate enough demand by cutting prices. Freemont and Shanghai may well be at or near production capacity limits but Berlin and Texas are ramping up recently reaching 5000 per week production rates. The latest official guidance is "For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million cars for the year." However, there are some suggestions that 2 million may not be impossible. 1.8 million is only 450k per quarter and they have managed near 440k in 2 quarters to March 2023 and near 480k in Q2 2023 so does practically no growth or even reductions with two factories ramping up make any sense? So is the 1.8 million figure a well sandbagged number or is demand causing production to be throttled back?

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