What happen to this site should be the primary guide to what answer or answers should be selected as correct.

This will run for a while 2030 close date is nominal and could easily be much different.:

If it is known that manifold will close then best judgement should be used by me prior to closure.
If manifold announce they have been cleared to do what they are doing with this "sweepstake" model then it can be resolved likely as "There is no difference."
If they have to make changes so there are no fees on sweepstake markets that will be strong indicator that it should close as "A house edge"
and so on.

In "Molly's Game", Molly was not only charged but racketeering provisions were also invoked. It was implied that this was because the game was "not fair" when she took a percentage of a few pots. She was making money so I have split first two options to distinguish between a house edge for purpose of making money versus just to cover costs which perhaps could be an important distinction.

I am mainly doing this to see discussion of what is a sweepstake and how, if at all, it differs from gambling and illegal gambling. I'll start:

I think, in a sweepstake, after paying a stake you are randomly allocated a gambling position. You can choose to pay more and get more positions. The difference to my mind is that in gambling you can research what position to take up and this can lead to more and more time spent in an addictive habit that you will figure out how to be better.

This difference seems to me to be a likely reason why there is a sweepstake exception to gambling rules in some locations.

So what are others thoughts and is this site pushing sweepstakes exception somewhat or to the limit or beyond those limits?

Please do comment with your thoughts.

I wasn't going to bet on this, but forgot and did a couple. I'll try to remember not to do so again.

• Update 2025-03-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market Resolution Clarification:

  • The site’s shutdown was determined to be for reasons unrelated to the legality or potential illegality of its sweepstake model.

  • As a result, the outcomes observed on this site are not relevant to judging whether sweepstakes differ from illegal gambling.

  • The market will therefore be resolved as N/A.