This is a "how many?" question (using yes/no format where different resolve% are used for different number answers).

So 7 or less launches in January 2024 and this question resolves at 0%

if 8 launches in January 2024 then resolves at 20%

if 9 launches in January 2024 then resolves at 40%

if 10 launches in January 2024 then resolves at 60%

if 11 launches in January 2024 then resolves at 80%

if 12 or more launches in January 2024 then resolves at 100%

Holding a no position will pay the complement so if there are 10 launches pays 60% of yes position to yes position holders then no position holders will receive 40% of their no position for that holding.

Launch counts if it actually takes-off in tact as intended and is intended to be orbital or very close to that.

Orbital can be as short as 1 complete orbit.

Very close to orbital requires intending final stage to travel at least 50% of way around Earth and either maximum altitude over 150 km or having altitude and speed energy sufficient for a 100km or more altitude circular orbit.

Numbers for recent calendar months are

January 2023 7

February 2023 6

March 2023 8

April 2023 7 (including one Starship launch)

May 2023 9

June 2023 7

July 2023 8

August 2023 8

September 2023 10

October 2023 9

November 2023 10 (including one Starship)

Uses UTC times.

I will extend closing time if the final answer will not be clear.