This is a "how many?" question (using yes/no format where different resolve% are used for different number answers).
So 7 or less launches in March 2024 and this question resolves at 0%
if 8 launches in March 2024 then resolves at 20%
if 9 launches in March 2024 then resolves at 40%
if 10 launches in March 2024 then resolves at 60%
if 11 launches in March 2024 then resolves at 80%
if 12 or more launches in March 2024 then resolves at 100%
Holding a no position will pay the complement so if there are 10 launches pays 60% of yes position to yes position holders then no position holders will receive 40% of their no position for that holding.
Launch counts if it actually takes-off in tact as intended and is intended to be orbital or very close to that.
Orbital can be as short as 1 complete orbit.
Very close to orbital requires intending final stage to travel at least 50% of way around Earth and either maximum altitude over 150 km or having altitude and speed energy sufficient for a 100km or more altitude circular orbit.
Numbers for recent calendar months are
January 2023 7
February 2023 6
March 2023 8
April 2023 7 (including one Starship launch)
May 2023 9
June 2023 7
July 2023 8
August 2023 8
September 2023 10
October 2023 9
November 2023 10 (including one Starship)
December 2023 9
January 2024 10
February 2024 9
Uses UTC times.
I will extend closing time if the final answer is not clear at that time.
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@creator Does the Starship launch count? The question requires an intended flight at least 50% around Earth, and from Texas to the Indian Ocean is just about that 50%; we don't know where exactly the planned splashdown location was.
@dp9000 I intend to accept Jonathan McDowell calculations unless there is some reason to think there is something better available and easily interpretable.
https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1768492280661389700
Here is my attempt at a TLE for Starship flight 3
1A11167U 24U01 24074.56498840 .00000000 +00000-0 +00000-0 0 18 2A11167 26.7319 179.3178 0223329 354.5034 112.2790 16.69103215 03
It is a decent match to the height and vel. vals from the webcast (black points), and
@Marco_Langbroek 's two lat/lon locations in the Indian Ocean (magenta crosses). The location of Starbase (leftmost magenta cross) is off because the slower speed pre SECO is not modelled
I have added flight 3 to GCAT as launch 2024-U01 and catalog number A11167, on the assumption that @18thSDS will not give it a standard launch designation (in which case it would be 2024-049 and S59230)
The orbital parameters of the fit are -55 km x 234 km x 26.7 deg.
That covers the max altitude over 150km
Re 50% way around Earth
Starbase lat long is 25ยฐ59โฒ15โณN 97ยฐ11โฒ11โณW
For the endpoint should I be looking at end of lines or rightmost crosses ?
If rightmost cross I read off right hand graphs approx 26S 70E
While this is less than 180 degrees of longitude it doesn't have to be over because of inclination. I suspect it is more than 50% of way around Earth as more than half a sinewave has been done in top right graph.
The end of line is clearly over 90E and therefore 97W to 92E is over 180 degrees longitude.
I am open to hearing arguments of how this should be correctly calculated and I will continue to look for info to help.
The rightmost cross appear to be loss of telemetry and it was clearly intended to go further.
The end of line may well be projection without atmosphere slowing it down so this may be too far.
18730 may be less than [edit half] circumference of Earth but this is to loss of telemetry. That was at T+48.5min speed 25707Km/h and planned length was about 1hour 4 minutes.
@ChristopherRandles Even with the 70.87 E loss of telemetry longitude, we can add the 12.43 degrees that the earth rotated during the 49:35 min flight time. From the launch pad at 97.15 W this gives 180.45 degrees, so it should be enough to count.
If I assume 2 minutes of vertical descent after atmosphere slows its progress around world, that leaves 13.5 minutes of slowing from 25707 km/h to 0km/h. The deceleration gets stronger with lower altitudes as the atmosphere is thicker so I think it is an underestimate to approximate this travel as 13.5 minutes at half of 25707km/h.. That gives me nearly 2900km which added to the 18730 is over half way round Earth.
So (even without Earth rotation DP mentions (it had that Eastward momentum to start with?)) I think this was planned to be over 50% of way around Earth and it should count unless someone can show me I am doing this wrong.