Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page.
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/past/?search=SpaceX
in September UTC.
If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
(Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated. However, it isn't having much success recently.)
October market
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9 successfully launched in first 18 days of September
6 with planned dates by 26th September
1 F9 slot possible from 28th onwards
2 further possible F9 slots now seem fairly tight to fit in before end of month
1 possible Starship but that seems rather tight by month end too and less likely to be successful
19 would be very impressive, but rather doubtful if will happen.
11 successfully launched in first 21 days of September
5 with planned dates in September
1 F9 slot possible from 28th onwards SLC40 JRTI
1 further possible F9 slots 39A & ASOG seems fairly tight to fit in before end of month
1 possible Starship but that seems very tight by month end with static fire(s) not yet done and also less likely to be successful
19 would be very a very impressive, but rather doubtful if will happen.
14 successfully launched in first 21 days of September
3 with planned dates in September
While there possibly could be a further F9 slots using 39A & ASOG, this would leave planned launch on 1 Oct struggling to have a droneship. Even if there was a delay to the 1 Oct launch it might not be known about in time to organise a launch from 39A so this is looking very unlikely to happen.
Starship seems NET 6 Oct
So likely 17, or less if there are any delays.