Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page.
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=
for April 2026, UTC time.
If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
(Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated. Success may well be more of an issue with test flights.)
My understanding of how nextspaceflight colours launches is that the launch ends with payload deployment. Therefore a problem with payload deployment could result in orange or red outlining for partial failure or failure. A failure after this like a deorbit burn failing has been shown outlined in green previously. As long as the outline colour is not clearly wrong resolution will be based on the outline colour.
Could be launch of starship and / or falcon heavy in April 2026 as well as Falcon 9 launches.
May 2026 market
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ632 | |
| 2 | Ṁ188 | |
| 3 | Ṁ80 | |
| 4 | Ṁ66 | |
| 5 | Ṁ26 |
People are also trading
7 successfully done : 2nd 7th 11th and 11th 14th 15th 19th in first 19 days.
4 more with planned dates: 21st 23rd 25th 29th but there are more slots: potentially 3 more from SLC-40 and an expendable Falcon Heavy from LC-39A while a starship seems unlikely.
While above says 15 is possible that is hard to fit in so it is probably going to be under 15 as the market probabilities indicate.
9 successfully done to 23rd.
3 more with planned dates: 26th 27th 30th
Probably no more slots with drone ship availability unless
either ASOG is nearly in position and an extra launch is announced very soon with unusually little notice
or the 1 May planned launch is brought forward or cancelled and replaced with an earlier launch.