Global Average Temperature Jan 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
3
1kṀ180
Jan 31
10%
January 2026 less than 0.945C
10%
January 2026 0.945C or more and less than 0.995C
10%
January 2026 0.995C or more and less than 1.045C
12%
January 2026 1.045C or more and less than 1.095C
12%
January 2026 1.095C or more and less than 1.145C
10%
January 2026 1.145C or more and less than 1.195C
9%
January 2026 1.195C or more and less than 1.245C
29%
January 2026 1.245C or more

Data is currently at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv

or

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)

January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.

If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.


Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C resolves to an exceed 1.195C option.

Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is significantly in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

So if it shows +125 , it would resolve 1.2450 or more

bought Ṁ20 NO

@Jack1 Correct (unless they change the base period or something)

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