Data is currently at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv
or
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)
January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.
If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.
Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C resolves to an exceed 1.195C option.
Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is significantly in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.
1,000Brieflly glancing on some various stratosphere diagnostic websites (only considering CMC ensemble and ECMWF det.) I'm not seeing much model evidence for a PV split in the medium range...Models seem to still indicate a stretched PV ... This might be a change since yesterday but I haven't been following the models this week.
MJO looks fairly robust in most recent ECM run so I suppose I should place some more weight on the dynamic models despite the uncertainty for the strat forecast for the end of the month (20th+ I don't know if we will get a rise matching climo)... At this point both climate and the dynamic super ensemble are pointing towards a very uncertain 1.25 C as a point prediction...
After briefly looking at the trends in more recent runs I see western Antarctica cooling and the Yukon and Siberia also cooling to more extreme cold temps..
I've adjusted the probabilities downwards subjectively a bit more aggressively than in the past from what the climate-extended dynamic super ensemble implies ( downwards from 1.22 or 1.20 depending on the unadjusted/adjusted version of the notebook) ...
