It looks like 15 Traders, 5 yes positions 7 no positions, 89% chance.

15*3=45 so it looks like a yes but I will wait 15-30 minutes before resolving in case there are any objections or updates.

stress

@vincentpearce well done

Risk free mana: I will put 5 manalink on a resolved claim and tag the person for everyone who trades this claim and at close has no position.

At present it is 15*4=60. That may seem a long way short of 100 for a safe no but just 2 more no positions would change it to 17*6=102. Without such 2 new no position traders or equivalent, a whale could push %chance up or down to win. but pushing down looks easier and more profitable. (That might depend on your views about frequencies of (i) last second zeroing position, (ii) last second taking up a position from no position, (iii) new trading positions, and (iv) new 0 positions...

Not sire which way it will go? I suggest selling and buying back to set up a 0 position to take advantage of free mana then you can return later or not.

%chance has fallen to 36% perhaps that makes pushing up price more likely but maybe a few more traders will make that look risky and piling into no positions will happen.

edits to keep up to date.

Risk free mana: I will put 5 manalink on a resolved claim and tag the person for everyone who trades this claim and at close has no position.

At present it is 10*2=20 just Arun Johnson and myself with no position. That may seem a long way short of 100 for a safe no but just 5 more no positions would change it to 15*7=105. Also remember a whale could push %chance up or down to win.

Not sire which way it will go? I suggest setting up a 0 position to take advantage of free mana then you can return later or not.

Keep pushing the price up, perhaps it will encourage @MarcusAbramovitch to come in with a big no order. I think price should drop to nearer 50%

Do bot accounts count as having a position? They don't count for the total traders.

@Fedor I see 6 traders including a bot having traded and 6 as the number of Traders above graph so I think they do count for both traders (figure above graph) and positions (if they are listed as having a position).

@ChristopherRandles Ahh, it corrected. When I was looking, it was 6 positions, 5 traders.

Just experimenting creating manalink. This is intended to encourage new traders to buy and sell out their position so I would prefer that you only claim if you do that. There may be more later.

https://manifold.markets/link/fZlONUpv

Manifold Markets

Create your own prediction market. Unfold the future.

Feel free to indicate how many Mana I would have to offer to persuade you to trade. With out without requirement to sell out position by close of trading.

This is a follow on from success of

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/will-the-chance-displayed-at-close

Will the %chance displayed at close exceed number of yes positions * number of no positions

Resolved YES. If there is a tie, claim wil be resolved no. Some examples: If there are 11 yes and 11 no positions at close, this claim will be resolved no regardless of % chance displayed at close because % chance cannot reach 121%. If there are 20 yes and 0 no positions at close, this claim will…

That claim would have reached 27*(27-9-7) well over 100 so would have been a no. Perhaps this will be less popular or perhaps there will be more encouragement to people to cash out positions to ensure which way it goes. Just 15 traders, 7 encouraged to cash out might be enough to ensure more no voters come into market.

Surprising this is over 50%?