https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/at-close-will-the-chance-displayed

At close, will the %chance displayed exceed number of Traders * number of traders without a position.

52% chance. Number of Traders is figure displayed above graph. Number of traders without a position is calculated as (number of Traders from figure above graph minus number of listed accounts with a yes or no position)

Tomorrow I am thinking of setting up

Will the %chance displayed at close exceed number of Traders * number of traders without a position.

Should I do an exact repeat of this one as well / instead or any other comments or suggestions?

I am seeing 81% chance, 7 yes and 9 no and I haven't seen any late changes. Anyone see anything different or any changes before I resolve this - looks like a yes to me

Resolved. Nice profit Cloe

@ChristopherRandles damn, forgot to check the closing time.

@SavioMak Oops, me too (or rather, I checked it, but then didn't keep track of time).

@ChristopherRandles Congrats @cloe !

gg

7*9=63 but if it is a new whale would need to push it to 73 to exceed 8*9 that can be done last 2 seconds with just 5000 but there is always the risk of 2 or 3 or 4 extra betters in that last few seconds. With a no position I would be cashing out to avoid the risk. Yes positions probably just pray for 1 whale.

I thought yes holders would sell out their positions before we got to current 8*12. One more no takes us over 100 but at a mere 3% perhaps yes holders will hang on.

This is a strategy that I thought about but eventually gives up. Each point is independent but combines to a much grester effect.

1. Reduce number of YES holders at close by offering extra to buy out their shares (ask them to set up a limit order at 90%)

2. Either get a 50k loan from someone else to outbid Tor, or snipe at market close so he doesnt have the time to react. (super risky)

3. Bribe NO holders with <100 shares to sell their shares

i need to fully read the titles of markets before betting on them

@cloe Sometimes that or the description and being just a little tired will bite you.

@cloe do u want me to put up a limit order cloe

@KyleWan no it's okay

@cloe i've lost too many markets because i sell a winning position that i think is losing... and i don't want to see my league rank tank too soon (it's already dead last)

@cloe then best of luck! are you fine with me recruiting?

@KyleWan yesyeyes

Less than 3 days to go and the market continues to weirdly have % chance at 21% equal to 3yes * 7no positions. Doesn't look like the number of positions will guarantee a no resolution. I assume a whale will come in and bet big at the end and there is more to be made betting yes when the current value is well below 50%. So should traders switch to yes? Or, will number of positions increase as it gets closer to closing?

Now that this got posted in the Manifold Discord, it's probably going to get more traders, making it harder to resolve YES.

Offer cancelled. (Orginally: I will buy M1 YES if someone send me a M5 manalink

@SavioMak I'm offering the same deal.

@Fedor @SavioMak

Do these deals guarantee that you hold a yes position to closure?

@ChristopherRandles yes

@SavioMak sounds like a good deal particularly for the largest no holder, reduces their risk and probably leads to more people taking a no position so extending gains and further reducing risks of holding no.

@SavioMak Savio mak sold their YES

@ShadowyZephyr No one ever sent me any mana, and my YES is sold before I made my offer

@ChristopherRandles Yeah, will hold 1 YES to closure if someone sends me a 5M manalink.
Not very interested in this market, figure I can help those in it.

@Fedor Actually, I will pay you M5

@Fedor I have sent you a manalink in one of your resolved markets, and tagged you.

@SavioMak Have taken payment, will hold the Yes share.

@SavioMak

so at 8*11 =88. 9*11=99 perhaps makes a big difference, possibly drawing in more no betters. If I offer to buy 1 and hold yes position for a 20 mana, is anyone interested?

nah, I bet there are people willing to do it for cheaper, plus 88% is already comfortable enough for me, especially with all those limit orders

Now 8*9=72. No holders selling out of what looked like winning position might be making it more dubious and more interesting for a big whale? 9*9 probably not much more secure.