If there is a tie, claim wil be resolved no.
Some examples:
If there are 11 yes and 11 no positions at close, this claim will be resolved no regardless of % chance displayed at close because % chance cannot reach 121%.
If there are 20 yes and 0 no positions at close, this claim will be resolved yes if % chance displayed is 0.1% or more
I am seeing 81% chance, 7 yes and 9 no and I haven't seen any late changes. Anyone see anything different or any changes before I resolve this - looks like a yes to me
Resolved. Nice profit Cloe
7*9=63 but if it is a new whale would need to push it to 73 to exceed 8*9 that can be done last 2 seconds with just 5000 but there is always the risk of 2 or 3 or 4 extra betters in that last few seconds. With a no position I would be cashing out to avoid the risk. Yes positions probably just pray for 1 whale.
This is a strategy that I thought about but eventually gives up. Each point is independent but combines to a much grester effect.
Reduce number of YES holders at close by offering extra to buy out their shares (ask them to set up a limit order at 90%)
Either get a 50k loan from someone else to outbid Tor, or snipe at market close so he doesnt have the time to react. (super risky)
Bribe NO holders with <100 shares to sell their shares
@cloe i've lost too many markets because i sell a winning position that i think is losing... and i don't want to see my league rank tank too soon (it's already dead last)
Less than 3 days to go and the market continues to weirdly have % chance at 21% equal to 3yes * 7no positions. Doesn't look like the number of positions will guarantee a no resolution. I assume a whale will come in and bet big at the end and there is more to be made betting yes when the current value is well below 50%. So should traders switch to yes? Or, will number of positions increase as it gets closer to closing?
Offer cancelled. (Orginally: I will buy M1 YES if someone send me a M5 manalink
so at 8*11 =88. 9*11=99 perhaps makes a big difference, possibly drawing in more no betters. If I offer to buy 1 and hold yes position for a 20 mana, is anyone interested?