Will the %chance displayed at close exceed number of yes positions * number of no positions
27
resolved Jun 4
Resolved
YES

If there is a tie, claim wil be resolved no.

Some examples:

If there are 11 yes and 11 no positions at close, this claim will be resolved no regardless of % chance displayed at close because % chance cannot reach 121%.

If there are 20 yes and 0 no positions at close, this claim will be resolved yes if % chance displayed is 0.1% or more

Get αΉ€500 play money

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ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randles

Tomorrow I am thinking of setting up

Will the %chance displayed at close exceed number of Traders * number of traders without a position.

Should I do an exact repeat of this one as well / instead or any other comments or suggestions?

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randles

I am seeing 81% chance, 7 yes and 9 no and I haven't seen any late changes. Anyone see anything different or any changes before I resolve this - looks like a yes to me

Resolved. Nice profit Cloe

3 replies
SavioMak avatar
Savio Makpredicted NO

@ChristopherRandles damn, forgot to check the closing time.

TorBarstad avatar
Tor Barstadpredicted NO

@SavioMak Oops, me too (or rather, I checked it, but then didn't keep track of time).

Fedor avatar
Fedorpredicted YES
Catnee avatar
Catneebought αΉ€1,000 of NO

gg

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randles

7*9=63 but if it is a new whale would need to push it to 73 to exceed 8*9 that can be done last 2 seconds with just 5000 but there is always the risk of 2 or 3 or 4 extra betters in that last few seconds. With a no position I would be cashing out to avoid the risk. Yes positions probably just pray for 1 whale.

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randles

I thought yes holders would sell out their positions before we got to current 8*12. One more no takes us over 100 but at a mere 3% perhaps yes holders will hang on.

SavioMak avatar
Savio Makbought αΉ€7 of YES

This is a strategy that I thought about but eventually gives up. Each point is independent but combines to a much grester effect.

  1. Reduce number of YES holders at close by offering extra to buy out their shares (ask them to set up a limit order at 90%)

  2. Either get a 50k loan from someone else to outbid Tor, or snipe at market close so he doesnt have the time to react. (super risky)

  3. Bribe NO holders with <100 shares to sell their shares

cloe avatar
cloebought αΉ€30 of YES

i need to fully read the titles of markets before betting on them

6 replies
Fedor avatar
Fedorpredicted YES

@cloe Sometimes that or the description and being just a little tired will bite you.

KyleWan avatar
Hazepskibought αΉ€0 of NO

@cloe do u want me to put up a limit order cloe

cloe avatar
cloepredicted YES

@KyleWan no it's okay

cloe avatar
cloepredicted YES

@cloe i've lost too many markets because i sell a winning position that i think is losing... and i don't want to see my league rank tank too soon (it's already dead last)

KyleWan avatar
Hazepskipredicted NO

@cloe then best of luck! are you fine with me recruiting?

cloe avatar
cloepredicted YES

@KyleWan yesyeyes

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randles

Less than 3 days to go and the market continues to weirdly have % chance at 21% equal to 3yes * 7no positions. Doesn't look like the number of positions will guarantee a no resolution. I assume a whale will come in and bet big at the end and there is more to be made betting yes when the current value is well below 50%. So should traders switch to yes? Or, will number of positions increase as it gets closer to closing?

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'bought αΉ€10 of NO

Now that this got posted in the Manifold Discord, it's probably going to get more traders, making it harder to resolve YES.

SavioMak avatar
Savio Maksold αΉ€5 of YES

Offer cancelled. (Orginally: I will buy M1 YES if someone send me a M5 manalink

13 replies
Fedor avatar
Fedor

@SavioMak I'm offering the same deal.

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randlespredicted NO

@Fedor @SavioMak

Do these deals guarantee that you hold a yes position to closure?

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randlespredicted NO

@SavioMak sounds like a good deal particularly for the largest no holder, reduces their risk and probably leads to more people taking a no position so extending gains and further reducing risks of holding no.

SavioMak avatar
Savio Mak

@ShadowyZephyr No one ever sent me any mana, and my YES is sold before I made my offer

Fedor avatar
Fedor

@ChristopherRandles Yeah, will hold 1 YES to closure if someone sends me a 5M manalink.
Not very interested in this market, figure I can help those in it.

SavioMak avatar
Savio Makpredicted NO

@Fedor Actually, I will pay you M5

SavioMak avatar
Savio Makbought αΉ€150 of NO

@Fedor I have sent you a manalink in one of your resolved markets, and tagged you.

Fedor avatar
Fedorbought αΉ€1 of YES

@SavioMak Have taken payment, will hold the Yes share.

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randles

@SavioMak

so at 8*11 =88. 9*11=99 perhaps makes a big difference, possibly drawing in more no betters. If I offer to buy 1 and hold yes position for a 20 mana, is anyone interested?

SavioMak avatar
Savio Makpredicted NO

nah, I bet there are people willing to do it for cheaper, plus 88% is already comfortable enough for me, especially with all those limit orders

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randles

Now 8*9=72. No holders selling out of what looked like winning position might be making it more dubious and more interesting for a big whale? 9*9 probably not much more secure.