If there is a tie, claim wil be resolved no.
Some examples:
If there are 11 yes and 11 no positions at close, this claim will be resolved no regardless of % chance displayed at close because % chance cannot reach 121%.
If there are 20 yes and 0 no positions at close, this claim will be resolved yes if % chance displayed is 0.1% or more
Related questions
π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ6,336 | |
| 2 | αΉ342 | |
| 3 | αΉ134 | |
| 4 | αΉ75 | |
| 5 | αΉ53 |
Tomorrow I am thinking of setting up
Will the %chance displayed at close exceed number of Traders * number of traders without a position.
Should I do an exact repeat of this one as well / instead or any other comments or suggestions?
I am seeing 81% chance, 7 yes and 9 no and I haven't seen any late changes. Anyone see anything different or any changes before I resolve this - looks like a yes to me
Resolved. Nice profit Cloe
@SavioMak Oops, me too (or rather, I checked it, but then didn't keep track of time).
7*9=63 but if it is a new whale would need to push it to 73 to exceed 8*9 that can be done last 2 seconds with just 5000 but there is always the risk of 2 or 3 or 4 extra betters in that last few seconds. With a no position I would be cashing out to avoid the risk. Yes positions probably just pray for 1 whale.
I thought yes holders would sell out their positions before we got to current 8*12. One more no takes us over 100 but at a mere 3% perhaps yes holders will hang on.
This is a strategy that I thought about but eventually gives up. Each point is independent but combines to a much grester effect.
Reduce number of YES holders at close by offering extra to buy out their shares (ask them to set up a limit order at 90%)
Either get a 50k loan from someone else to outbid Tor, or snipe at market close so he doesnt have the time to react. (super risky)
Bribe NO holders with <100 shares to sell their shares
Less than 3 days to go and the market continues to weirdly have % chance at 21% equal to 3yes * 7no positions. Doesn't look like the number of positions will guarantee a no resolution. I assume a whale will come in and bet big at the end and there is more to be made betting yes when the current value is well below 50%. So should traders switch to yes? Or, will number of positions increase as it gets closer to closing?
Now that this got posted in the Manifold Discord, it's probably going to get more traders, making it harder to resolve YES.
Offer cancelled. (Orginally: I will buy M1 YES if someone send me a M5 manalink
@SavioMak sounds like a good deal particularly for the largest no holder, reduces their risk and probably leads to more people taking a no position so extending gains and further reducing risks of holding no.
@ChristopherRandles Yeah, will hold 1 YES to closure if someone sends me a 5M manalink.
Not very interested in this market, figure I can help those in it.
so at 8*11 =88. 9*11=99 perhaps makes a big difference, possibly drawing in more no betters. If I offer to buy 1 and hold yes position for a 20 mana, is anyone interested?
nah, I bet there are people willing to do it for cheaper, plus 88% is already comfortable enough for me, especially with all those limit orders
Now 8*9=72. No holders selling out of what looked like winning position might be making it more dubious and more interesting for a big whale? 9*9 probably not much more secure.
