Basic
241
á¹€54k
Nov 6
57%
Iran attacks Israel
13%
Another Trump assassination attempt
13%
A terrorist attack on US soil
10%
Trump is sentenced to home confinement
9%
Vance is fired
8%
Trump dies
7%
Biden dies
6%
Harris attempted assassination
4%
Trump is sentenced to jail/prison
4%
Vance goes furniture shopping
4%
Biden resigns
4%
Trump suspends campaign
4%
A senator endorses RFK jr
3%
Walz is fired
3%
Harris dies
3%
Vance is indicted
1.7%
Harris is found to be ineligible
1.7%
Harris suspends campaign
1%
Trump commits homicide
1%
Elon runs for president

All events must happen after the creation of this poll (August 8, 2024). I will not place orders on this market.

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@ChristopherONeil Does this resolve to YES now?

Please resolve yes

Trump commits homicide

@ChristopherONeil market has this as more likely than elon runs for president

bought á¹€50 Answer #yycsr088ow YES

@ChristopherONeil @mods Representative James Comer, Republican of Kentucky and the chair of the Oversight Committee, recently announced an investigation into Vice President Kamala Harris related to immigration at the southern border.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/08/us/politics/harris-house-republicans-investigations.html

bought á¹€50 Answer #3p80wf85l6 YES

The original letter announcing the investigation is dated the 6th, but I'd interpret "investigates" to include ongoing investigations.

bought á¹€700 Answer #3p80wf85l6 YES

"Today [August 16, 2024], House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) is launching an investigation into Minnesota Governor Timothy Walz"
https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-launches-probe-into-governor-walzs-extensive-engagement-with-china-and-ccp-entities/

bought á¹€100 Answer #3p80wf85l6 YES

@ChristopherONeil resolve it?

Iran attacks Israel

@ChristopherONeil can you clarify what qualifies as "attacks" pls

bought á¹€100 Iran attacks Israel YES

do you wanna add "israel attacks iran" or "israel invaders lebanon"

Elon runs for president
bought á¹€390 Elon runs for president NO

@ChristopherONeil He can't, resolves no

Trump commits homicide
bought á¹€50 Trump commits homicide NO

@ChristopherONeil assuming this is a new homicide, not that any older homicide is discovered

Yes. All events must take place after the creation of this poll (August 8, 2024).