I moved the market on Trump being sentenced to jail/home confinement before Election Day.

AFAIK, the NYS Business Records case sentencing has been rescheduled to after Nov. 5th. https://www.npr.org/2024/09/06/g-s1-21151/donald-trump-hush-money-sentencing-new-york

I don't think there's any other sentencing proceedings scheduled. There's always a chance he gets arrested for DUI in a golf cart and railroaded in Florida, but I don't expect it.

@ChristopherONeil Does this resolve to YES now?

Please resolve yes

@ChristopherONeil market has this as more likely than elon runs for president

@ChristopherONeil @mods Representative James Comer, Republican of Kentucky and the chair of the Oversight Committee, recently announced an investigation into Vice President Kamala Harris related to immigration at the southern border.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/08/us/politics/harris-house-republicans-investigations.html

The original letter announcing the investigation is dated the 6th, but I'd interpret "investigates" to include ongoing investigations.

"Today [August 16, 2024], House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) is launching an investigation into Minnesota Governor Timothy Walz"
https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-launches-probe-into-governor-walzs-extensive-engagement-with-china-and-ccp-entities/

@mods @ChristopherONeil

@ChristopherONeil resolve it?

@ChristopherONeil can you clarify what qualifies as "attacks" pls

do you wanna add "israel attacks iran" or "israel invaders lebanon"

@ChristopherONeil He can't, resolves no

@ChristopherONeil assuming this is a new homicide, not that any older homicide is discovered

Yes. All events must take place after the creation of this poll (August 8, 2024).