See https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65981876 for context.
I will use my best judgement for number 3.
1,000
3.00So, what've I missed? There's still time left in 2023, but I should start thinking about how to rule if nothing changes.
My current understanding makes me strongly lean towards "It will be unclear/they will jointly announce they are wimping out" since they seem to be disagreeing on the ruleset, but I've also heard some arguments for options 1 and 2 as well. I'm not current on all the evidence tho!
@ChristopherKing I agree that it is unclear. Elon Musk has continued to say he wants to fight. The last thing Mark Zuckerberg said was the following.
I think we can all agree Elon isn't serious and it's time to move on. I offered a real date. Dana White offered to make this a legit competition for charity. Elon won't confirm a date, then says he needs surgery, and now asks to do a practice round in my backyard instead. If Elon ever gets serious about a real date and official event, he knows how to reach me. Otherwise, time to move on. I'm going to focus on competing with people who take the sport seriously.
@ChristopherKing Yeah I think it's pretty joint. IMO they're both happy they don't don't have to do it but it played out in a way that they can say they were willing to fight but the other guy was being unreasonable. I don't know how to take a side between them both saying the other wimped out.
@ChristopherKing Yes, but it is Musk that is causing the problems when he suggests highly impractical things like fighting in Colosseum in Italy.
@IonMarqvardsen Being impractical doesn't meet the standard of clearly backing out, so I'd still say it is unclear.
@ChristopherKing Some people are saying that Musk is the one who wimped out because they don't like the stipulations he is giving, but "let's have a practice fight in your backyard" is not something super unreasonable that it would be hard for Zuckerberg to accept.
I think neither of them really wants to do it and this is why they won't agree on circumstances that would allow it to take place. So both are wimping out.
@ChristopherKing To me it looks like a clear case of Musk wimping out by making silly demands followed by excuse after excuse after excuse. I have no love for either of them, but Elon started this pissing match, and I suspect he didn't think Zuck would actually take him up on the offer. When he realized what he was up against, he chickened out.
@MitchLindgren they might still change their minds and fight, in which case it would resolve to option 4.
@ThomasMurphy I don't have a bet on this, but I personally think Musk wimped out. Zuck was ready to fight him anywhere. Musk was coming up with all these cockamamie schemes, and throwing insults, and trying to show up at his house or whatever. Acting like a 13 year old who had too much caffeine. He never seemed that serious about it. And Zuck told him to get serious or f-off, and Musk f-ed off.
@Domer he was just on JRE a week or so ago and offered out the invitation again, radio silence from Zuck.
@Domer Zuckerberg said it's "time to move on," and Musk kept saying that he's still up to the fight after that. Was that just a play from Musk because he knew it's not going to happen anyway? Seems quite likely. But it's far from a clear situation, and Zuckerberg could still accept Elon's continuing challenges if he wanted (at least before getting injured), so it seems like a central-case option 3 situation.
@na_pewno when musk goes on JRE to say hes up to do it anytime, and zuck is saying "time to move on"... seems like that is Option 2.
@Blomfilter I think quoting Zuckerberg as merely saying "time to move on" is taking it out of context.
I think we can all agree Elon isn't serious and it's time to move on. I offered a real date. Dana White offered to make this a legit competition for charity. Elon won't confirm a date, then says he needs surgery, and now asks to do a practice round in my backyard instead. If Elon ever gets serious about a real date and official event, he knows how to reach me. Otherwise, time to move on. I'm going to focus on competing with people who take the sport seriously.
I was wondering if someone was going to ask them.... Musk still says he's up for it.
@parhizj This market trades on the premise that when Musk says he wants to have the fight, goes to the doctor for a physical in preparation for the fight, talks to the Italian government about a venue for the fight, or says he'll drive to Zuck's house and fight right now, it's evidence that Musk wimped out.
Here he's saying that he'll fight if Zuck wants to, which, in addition to being incredibly submissive, should count as wimping out because we already know that Zuck doesn't want to.
@Frogswap I was with you until "we already know that Zuck doesn't want to." Both have continued to say they're willing to, but only on their terms.