Will I get COVID during my upcoming trip to the US?
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Ṁ100Ṁ399resolved Jul 26
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I'm going on a two-week trip to attend a conference (Illinois) and a summer school (NY). I intend to wear a mask on planes and public transport, but may be more lax around colleagues. I have not yet (to my knowledge) contracted COVID, and have had three shots of Pfizer. Will I contract COVID during this trip?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I'd estimate this at roughly 3000 microcovids (0.3% chance of infection) per day so about 6% over two weeks. This is based on https://www.microcovid.org/ and also my rough estimate of reported cases from a couple conferences I've been at. Of course, it depends on how crowded it is on average, how long you are in crowds, how good the air filtration/ventilation is, how much people are wearing masks, etc. but that's probably a reasonable ballpark.