Resolution criteria
This binary market will resolve to YES if the specified event occurs by the designated deadline, and NO otherwise.
Because the market question is currently incomplete, the creator must edit this description to specify:
The exact event being predicted.
The resolution deadline (including timezone).
The official source of truth or verification link.
If the event becomes impossible to verify or the resolution conditions remain completely ambiguous at the deadline, the market will resolve to N/A.
Background
This is a placeholder description for a binary prediction market. Binary markets resolve to either YES (true) or NO (false). Traders are advised to wait until the creator updates the question, resolution criteria, and background details before placing wagers.
Resolution criteria
Because "exciting" is inherently subjective, this market will resolve based on the following fallback hierarchy:
Creator Specification: The creator may edit this description at any time before the end of the group stage (June 27, 2026) to define a specific, objective statistical threshold (e.g., average goals per match exceeding the 2022 average of 2.69, or a set number of penalty shootouts).
Community Poll (Default): If no objective metric is specified by the creator, the market will resolve to YES if a Manifold community poll conducted after the final on July 19, 2026, yields a majority (>50%) agreement that the tournament was exciting, and NO otherwise.
Creator Discretion: If no poll is conducted and no metric is set, the creator will resolve the market based on their own subjective evaluation of the tournament's quality and drama by July 26, 2026.
If the tournament is canceled or abandoned before a champion is crowned, the market will resolve to N/A.
Background
The 2026 FIFA World Cup, running from June 11 to July 19, 2026, across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, is the first tournament to feature the expanded 48-team format. This expansion increases the total schedule to 104 matches, introducing a new Round of 32 knockout stage.
While proponents argue the larger field will produce historic upsets and broader global excitement, critics have expressed concern that the expanded group stage may dilute the overall level of competition and lead to player exhaustion. For context, the 2022 World Cup in Qatar set a high bar for excitement, averaging 2.69 goals per game and concluding with a highly dramatic final.
1,000