Will Trey Lance succeed in the NFL?
Basic
6
Ṁ5663023
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Factors used to measure success:
Top 5 salary by AAV (average annual salary)
Top 5 in MVP voting
Make 2 consecutive Pro-Bowls (at least one not as a replacement)
1st or 2nd team All-Pro
Subjective opinions of analysts
For reference here is how I would resolve current QBs
Yes: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts
Maybe (~75% chance): Matt Stafford, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson
Not yet: Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Would retirement be sufficient for resolving the market as NO?