Will Trey Lance succeed in the NFL?
Basic
6
Ṁ566
3023
7%
chance

Factors used to measure success:

  • Top 5 salary by AAV (average annual salary)

  • Top 5 in MVP voting

  • Make 2 consecutive Pro-Bowls (at least one not as a replacement)

  • 1st or 2nd team All-Pro

  • Subjective opinions of analysts

For reference here is how I would resolve current QBs

Yes: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts

Maybe (~75% chance): Matt Stafford, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson

Not yet: Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill

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Would retirement be sufficient for resolving the market as NO?

predicts NO

@Stoppunting likely would since that indicates his NFL career is over.

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