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The Lakers look pretty good without Luka.
Stats as of market creation:
W/L %: 30-19 (61.2%)
Net Rating: +0.7 in ~4775 poss
Net Rating (removing low leverage plays): +2.5 in ~4315 poss
Source: https://www.pbpstats.com/team-leverage-summary/nba?Season=2024-25&Leverage=VeryHigh,High,Medium
More recently (Trump presidency stats - since 1/20/25)
the Lakers have been even better:
W/L %: 8-1 (88.9%)
Net Rating: +15.1
At the end of the regular season will there be a reasonable argument that the Lakers performed better without Luka than with him?
For reference this would have resolved YES
in 2023 after the trade for Kyrie where the Mavs collapsed from a top 4 seed to the 11 seed with the +/- data suggesting the blame fell on Luka rather than Kyrie
Since this is somewhat subjective here are some metrics to keep track of to see if Luka "made the Lakers worse".
Lakers win % decreases (currently on pace for 50-32 record) AND there is evidence to link this decrease to Luka Doncic (i.e. it's not because of rest, or injuries to key players - Luka, LeBron, Reaves)
Luka's On-Court Net Rating is worse than his Off-Court Net Rating with the Lakers (Negative On-Off) - source basketball-reference
Luka's On-Court Net Rating is lower than the average of LeBron James (currently -1.4) and Austin Reaves (currently +3.9) On-Court net ratings - source basketball-reference
I can make some query on pbpstats.com that includes some combination of the Lakers top 3 players (Luka, LeBron, Reaves) and it reasonably implies Luka is making the Lakers worse (e.g.
This graphic shows that in the 16 games which Luka and Kyrie played in 2023 (5-11 record) they were a great team in the time Kyrie played but terrible when Luka played without Kyrie).
Additionally Kyrie had a 3-1 record in games he played without Luka, while Luka had an 0-3 record in games he played without Kyrie (after the trade - 2/6/23)
To avoid biased resolutions this may resolve N/A if unclear
(reserved for situations where the metrics are at/near the benchmarks or paint a mixed/unclear picture).